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After Venezuela and tensions with Iran, the US administration is seen to be considering scenarios for regime change in Havana
With the accusations against Raúl Castro, it seems that the Venezuelan scenario is being repeated in Cuba. According to reports, this is reinforced by the arrival in the southern Caribbean of the US nuclear-powered aircraft carrier "Nimitz" and its strike group, although a government source told the "New York Times" that it is a "show of force and not a major military operation", as happened with the aircraft carrier "Gerald Ford" during the operation to arrest Nicolás Maduro.
For Donald Trump, the arrest and imprisonment of the Venezuelan president represents the “perfect scenario” that his administration intends to use to reorganize governments considered hostile to the United States. After the operation against the regime in Caracas, where there were no American casualties and a new government close to Washington was installed, Trump tried the same approach unsuccessfully against the Iranian regime. Now there is talk of a “Venezuelan-style” transition in Cuba as well.
The “Caracas Model” envisages the removal of the main leader, the retention of most of the state apparatus in power to guarantee administrative stability, and the immediate conclusion of economic agreements with the new leaders. In this scenario, democracy remains in the background.
In Venezuela, interim President Delcy Rodríguez has been cooperating with the US administration since Maduro's arrest on January 3 and transfer to New York for trial. However, military leaders continue to maintain control of key power structures and democratic elections have not yet been announced.
Havana, however, is considered different from Caracas and the establishment of a “Castroism with an American stamp” is seen as unlikely. Despite the apparent unity of the communist regime around the figure of Raúl Castro and the pro-capitalist statements of one of his grandsons, the main obstacle seems to lie more in the US than in Cuba itself.
According to Cuban-American entrepreneur Hugo Cancio, within the US administration there is no room for the political continuity of the Castro family and Trump's objective remains rapid regime change in Cuba.
Unlike Venezuela, the Cuban diaspora in the US has built a powerful political network in Washington. Eleven members of the US Congress are of Cuban origin and exert constant pressure for the overthrow of the regime in Havana. The Cuban community in Miami is not expected to accept a political compromise similar to the Venezuelan model.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, of Cuban origin, is holding negotiations with Raúl Rodríguez Castro, Raúl Castro's nephew. However, he is understood to be aware that a hybrid solution would be opposed by the Cuban-American community, which constitutes a significant part of the Republican electorate.
If the "Venezuelan solution" fails, the scenario of a military intervention remains, with unpredictable consequences. Cuba, unlike Venezuela, has no organized political opposition and the military remains closely linked to the regime established since the 1959 revolution.
Meanwhile, Trump is seeking a political victory in the face of domestic discontent in the US, while CIA Director John Ratcliffe, during his visit to Havana, conveyed strong political warnings to the Cuban authorities, at a time when Cuba is also facing serious fuel shortages. / Adapted from "Corriere Della Sera"
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