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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, 21 months after Sweden's official request to join NATO and after a bargain that has reached its limits in Turkey's relations with the US and the Alliance, has instructed the Turkish National Assembly to approve the Protocol of Membership of the Nordic countries in NATO.
This decision is also the starting point for the next big deal for Turkey to secure approval from the US Congress for the sale of 40 F-16s and 80 kits to upgrade the Turkish Air Force's aging F-16s. Yesterday's development is also the result of the intervention of the American Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken during his last visit to Istanbul where he met with Erdogan, ensuring the commitment of the Turkish leader to continue with the Protocol of the admission of Sweden in exchange for the promise that the F-16 package will continue in parallel.
Erdogan gave the "green light" for the approval of the Protocol of Sweden's accession to NATO by the Turkish National Assembly, while Washington's commitment is that it will advance the request for F-16 in Congress, but it is not known whether it will be able to guarantee that this request will be approved. However, the news from the vote in the Turkish National Assembly on Sweden will certainly have a positive effect on the mood in Congress and balance the heavy atmosphere created by the Turkish president's pro-Hamas stance and continued close relations with Russia and Iran, which will be confirmed in the coming days with the visits of presidents Putin and Raisi to Turkey.
Orban a factor
However, Recep Tayyip Erdogan has not left all his weapons. After approval by the National Assembly, he will also have to sign Sweden's Protocol of Accession, and then it will be deposited with the Treaty Depository in Washington. And also, before Sweden is admitted to NATO, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, a close friend and "comrade" of Erdogan, will have to agree.
It is no coincidence that Orban yesterday and after it was known that the issue of Sweden will be put to a vote in the Turkish National Assembly, through a post he made it known that he addressed a letter to the Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristensen, whom he invited to Budapest for talks. This move by the Hungarian Prime Minister raises many questions whether he is finally in coordination with Erdogan, with whom they have excellent relations and a month ago they had a meeting especially in Budapest.
Viktor Orbán will most likely want to secure commitments from his Swedish counterpart regarding Sweden's position within the EU, where Hungary is treated as a "black sheep" after recently trying to block European aid to Ukraine. In addition, violations of human rights and the rule of law, something that brings him very close to Erdogan, have deprived his country of European resources and funding of several billion euros.
New delay for Sweden via Budapest?
But most likely in the framework of an Orbán-Erdogan agreement, the Hungarian Prime Minister will give a positive sign to Sweden, but will delay the approval of its admission to NATO under the pretext, keeping this letter as a safety net for " "friend" of Erdogan. And essentially a severe blackmail of NATO and Washington will be attempted to precede the approval of the sale of 40 F-16s and the upgrade of 80 others before Sweden finally joins NATO.
While Turkey appears to have now fulfilled its promise to the Americans, it is now awaiting retaliation from the US government. The next step will be to push the F-16 deal through Congress. As everything shows, the US government, after the latest developments, will try to simultaneously send to Congress the request for the F-16 package to Turkey and the sale of the F-35 to Greece, something that Anthony Blinken committed to in the meeting with the Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis in Chania and, according to information, this was the main topic of the telephone conversation they had on Monday, as well as the imperative demand of the Americans for the immediate involvement of a Greek alliance in the Red Sea.
It is important for Athens that finally, after several delays, the F-35 deal goes ahead, as everything indicates, which will give Greece a significant strategic advantage in terms of the balance of power in the air. Aegean. But the American side is still keeping Greece on hold and is linking the approval of the sale of aircraft in Athens to US-Turkey relations. Which is increasing discontent in the market. /Adapted Pamphlet from AP News
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