FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
In the short term, Putin will be stronger after the death of his former associate, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of the Russian president's private army. However, in the long run, it will weaken.
American and European officials are analyzing how the situation will be for the strongman of the Kremlin in the post-Prigozin era, as the "Politico" website reports in its analysis.
Western allies of Ukraine mainly argue that the political future of the Russian leader may be "dark".
European officials trying to assess the fallout from the death of Wagner's mercenary chief argue that it is likely to strengthen his grip on Russia's leadership but weaken his position over time.
Foreign governments are still trying to unravel the mystery of what exactly caused Prigozhin's plane to crash last Wednesday in Moscow, two months after he led a brief uprising and clashed with Russian forces to protest the policies.
Western officials who traveled to Moscow on Thursday, Politico wrote, argued that Prigozhin's death could be a temporary but temporary boost for Vladimir Putin, or at least leave his power intact.
"Putin has a pretty clear history of acting in his own country with impunity," said one US official familiar with Russian politics. "I don't think there's any mechanism for him to be held accountable... Just because people hate somebody, it doesn't necessarily mean he's going to be out of power."
On the contrary, a second US official, also familiar with Russian politics, said: "In the near future, Putin will be stronger, but in the long term he will be weaker."
For his part, the Estonian Minister of Defense, Hanno Pevkur, underlined that, by exterminating his opponents "one by one", the Russian leader forces his senior officials to "walk his line". "The society of fear is rapidly developing in Russia and people are more afraid than ever to go out on the streets for demonstrations or something like that," he argued, adding: "In general, the dictatorship in the mafia state is growing."
There have been conflicting reports about what led to the downing of Prigozhin's plane. The Biden administration has maintained that there is no indication that a missile was involved in the crash, but has left open the possibility of a bomb on the particular flight. In any case, few doubt that Putin is behind what US officials believe is an assassination attempt.
"Our initial assessment is that it is possible that Prigozhin was killed," a US official said on condition of anonymity, speaking about a sensitive and classified matter.
There was also some online speculation that Prigozhin was not dead and that the crash was staged as a way to eliminate him, but the Russian media apparatus was quick to debunk these rumours.
For the Biden administration, there are no consequences for the Russian president from the death of Wagner's mercenary leader after the plane crash. The US president suspects that Putin is behind the downing of the plane, while the US National Security Council pointed out on Wednesday that "the disastrous war in Ukraine led to the uprising of the private army in Moscow and ultimately to the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin".
Pyetja e madhe është, siç shkruan Politico, si do të reagojnë mbështetësit e tij në grupin mercenar “Ëagner” pas vdekjes së Prigozhin dhe nëse ata me kalimin e kohës mund të përbëjnë një kërcënim për Putinin.
Kremlini ka kaluar dy muajt e fundit duke u përpjekur të thithë shumë prej mercenarëve të Ëagnerit në ushtrinë e vet. “Zhdukja e Prigozhin, në një kohë afat shkurtër konsolidon pozicionin e Putinit brenda sistemit. Le të shohim se si sillen mercenarët e mbetur të Ëagner-it”, argumentoi një diplomat i lartë evropian. “Ekipi Ëagner është çmimi”, shtoi diplomati i Evropës Perëndimore, duke folur në kushte anonimiteti.
Analistët e huaj besojnë se Kremlini ka të ngjarë të emërojë një figurë më pak të njohur si pasardhësin e Prigozhin për të drejtuar operacionet e grupit Ëagner në Afrikë, duke siguruar që shefi i ri i mercenarëve rus të mos sfidojë Vladimir Putinin.
Pas kryengritjes së Prigozhin në qershor, zyrtarët amerikanë kishin parashikuar se Putini do ta eliminonte atë pasi besohet se ai kishte vrarë dhjetëra kundërshtarë të tij me kalimin e kohës.
Sanksionet perëndimore kanë dëmtuar rëndë ekonominë e Rusisë dhe udhëtimi i Putinit jashtë vendit është kufizuar pjesërisht për shkak të një urdhër-arresti të lëshuar kundër tij nga Gjykata Penale Ndërkombëtare.
Abbas Gallyamov, një ish-shkrues i fjalimeve të Putinit, argumentoi se vrasja e Prigozhin “forcon pozitën e Putinit mes elitës dhe e dobëson atë në sytë e publikut të gjerë”.
"Prigozin publicly challenged the rulers... but Putin did not accept the challenge, but sneaked in like a thief at night and stabbed him in the back," writes Galyamov.
Lini një Përgjigje