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The election race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is considered one of the most lopsided in modern American history.
Polls in seven key states show a narrow margin, with each candidate ahead in some areas by just a point or two, a percentage point within the margin of statistical error.
Harris narrowly wins
Trump polls and data from early and mail-in voting showed a narrow victory for Vice President Harris as the likely outcome.
She has narrow leads in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — swing states that, along with Nebraska's 2nd District, would give her the 270 electoral votes needed to win. A possible victory in Nevada, where she also has a small lead, could further increase Harris' constituency.
Trump wins by a narrow margin
Trump can secure victory either through the eastern states - winning Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania - or through the southern states, winning in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina. Pennsylvania is an important piece of the puzzle: While Harris appears to be slightly ahead there, his victory would give Trump 270 electoral votes.
In this scenario, Trump's success may depend on growing support from African-American and Hispanic voters. Polls have Donald Trump gaining ground in the demographics of black men, particularly in eastern states, and Hispanics in the South, where issues such as housing costs and border security weigh heavily.
A clear win for both
Although the polls show that they are very close, the possibility of a clear victory for one or the other cannot be ruled out. For Harris, women's high voter turnout, especially after the Supreme Court overturned abortion rights, could be key.
A recent poll shows Harris leading Trump by three points in Iowa, a state Trump won by eight points in 2020, suggesting she could do well in other states if women turn out in large numbers.
For Trump, an outright victory would include historic support from African-American and Hispanic voters, which would reflect dissatisfaction with Harris' campaign and the policies of outgoing President Joe Biden's administration, particularly its support for Israel's war. in the Gaza Strip and in Lebanon, says an analysis of the Greek newspaper Protothema.
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