FLASH
Shkruar nga Daniel Serwer
When you've fallen into a hole, the decision to dig deeper is suicide!
The world awaits revenge against Israel for the killings it committed last week. Both were relatively surgical affairs that killed the Lebanese Hezbollah military commander in Beirut (as well as several women and children) and Hamas's political spokesman in Tehran. Expectations for retaliation center on a major missile and drone attack from all directions.
I suspect that if successful, such an attack could mobilize the US to join Israel in further escalation. This is something Iranians do not want.
It doesn't have to be an airstrike
Israel has seemed invulnerable for decades. Its sophisticated air defenses have prevented thousands of missiles and drones from reaching population centers.
Iran and its partners may be better served to assassinate one or more key Israeli political or military figures. This would be a symmetrical response that some might argue does not justify further escalation. This would also strike fear into the hearts of every Jew in Israel. The only major Jewish figure killed was Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, killed by a Jew.
The Israelis have shown that they can track down and hit key figures in their adversaries' capitals. Is it really possible that the "axis of resistance" has not developed a comparable capability within Israel?
The skill need not necessarily be technologically sophisticated. Knives, guns and grenades can be smuggled in and killers can be hired or hired. Targets of opportunity should not be difficult to find in a small and relatively open society.
Iran has assets it does not want to lose
The Iranians will decide. Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis may have been relatively free to do what they wanted since October 7, but it is clear that Tehran is now coordinating retaliation.
Iran has reached nuclear threshold status. It is capable of building a nuclear bomb within weeks with materials in its possession. Prime Minister Netanyahu is looking for an excuse to impair that ability. In April, the Israelis demonstrated their ability to reach Iran's nuclear facilities with undetected drones. Iran may want to hide its hand in retaliation, mirroring Israel's refusal to confirm its hand in the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
Netanyahu wins, Israel loses
A successful kill or two, or a successful airstrike, will put the Israelis back in place. President Biden has made it clear to Netanyahu that the US will not support further escalation. If Netanyahu pays attention, the cycle will end. If not, it will continue.
That said, Netanyahu has already achieved some of his goals. The Gaza talks cannot go anywhere until the escalation ends. He does not want the ceasefire/prisoner exchange that Washington is insisting on. Democrats risk a major fight during the election campaign by favoring Trump, whom Netanyahu favors. The crisis will enable him to stay in power at least until October, when the Knesset returns from recess, and likely beyond.
Israel is the big loser. The brutal October 7 attack was far from an existential threat, but Netanyahu and many Israelis have characterized it as such. This justified the wild reaction in Gaza which in turn has led to assassinations and possible war with Iran and its partners. This is truly an existential threat. When you've fallen into a hole, digging deeper is suicide!/ Adapted "Pamphlet" from "Peacfare"
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