FLASH
Shkruar nga *Silvia Sgherri
Depending on how they are designed, the tracks that carry digital money could support an open monetary system or embed a bipolar system of competing blockchains with incompatible standards. For the US, continuing global monetary leadership will require improving its domestic and cross-border payments infrastructure for interoperability...
Twice in the past century, the foundations of global finance shifted as the burden placed on the money machine became unsustainable. Today, we are witnessing another shift, driven by the rise of stablecoins, tokenized deposits, and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). But this time, the shift is not unfolding through treaties or exchange rate policies. The question is no longer which central bank issues the “anchor” asset of the global monetary system, but on whose infrastructure value circulates.
When the Allied nations agreed in 1944 to create a global monetary architecture after World War II, based on U.S. economic power and a dollar backed by gold, governments accepted limitations on their monetary sovereignty in exchange for stable exchange rates and a reliable supply of global liquidity provided by the United States. However, as capital markets deepened, the Bretton Woods system became unsustainable. In 1971, the U.S. abandoned the convertibility of the dollar into gold, and the world moved to a dollar-based floating exchange rate regime that was flexible enough for an increasingly integrated global economy and complex financial system, but also fragile and prone to recurring crises. However, the U.S. dollar maintained its dominance in international transactions and reserves, thanks to the depth and security of U.S. Treasury markets, the global reach of U.S. finances, and the credibility of U.S. institutions.
Today, the structure of the global economy has changed: China is now the world’s largest trader; the eurozone is a major capital exporter; and emerging economies, such as India and ASEAN countries, are central to supply chains and major sources of energy demand. But while the economy has shifted towards multipolarity, the monetary system remains largely unipolar. The dollar still accounts for roughly half of cross-border credit, about 60% of global foreign exchange reserves, and over 50% of trade invoicing. It is also the currency against which almost all stable currencies in circulation are pegged.
The resulting structural mismatch has broad implications, as countries around the world, even those established as global manufacturing centers, remain exposed to U.S. monetary cycles, periodic dollar shortages, and asymmetric shocks. These vulnerabilities are systemic, not episodic, reflected in the global financing gaps that occurred in 2008 with the onset of the global financial crisis, in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic, and in 2022 when the U.S. Federal Reserve began raising interest rates to combat inflation. The imbalances were managed, but never resolved.
The rise of digital money could now break this deadlock. The critical innovation here is not the currencies themselves, but the underlying layers of settlement. Tokenized assets, programmable payments, and improved messaging frameworks enable states and private actors to build alternative infrastructure capable of bypassing legacy intermediaries. Properly designed, these monetary rails could support a sustainable open system, expanding access, reducing friction, and modernizing the world’s aging financial infrastructure.
But there is another, less desirable possibility: this new monetary architecture could entrench a bipolar system, involving competing geopolitical blocs with incompatible standards. This explains why digital currency projects have become instruments of geopolitics. China’s cross-border CBDC pilots are as much about shaping the norms of governance as they are about improving efficiency. Europe’s pursuit of “digital sovereignty” is rooted in security concerns, stemming from America’s apparent unreliability as a partner. Emerging economies are building new clearing arrangements outside the traditional dollar channels. Meanwhile, privately issued stablecoins are forcing governments to rethink how influence is exercised.
Technology is thus achieving what politics has not: a bottom-up reorganization of monetary power. The US still has the potential to lead, because its institutions remain the most trusted, its capital markets the deepest, and its reserve asset ecosystem the strongest. But fulfilling this potential will depend as much on architecture as on assets.
The threat to the dollar's supremacy is not a rival currency, but the possibility that the global financial infrastructure will evolve in ways that erode the advantages of openness, including the network effects that make holding and settling in dollars attractive.
To maintain its position at the center of the global monetary system, the United States must help build the rails that will carry global liquidity into the digital age. This means improving domestic and cross-border payments infrastructure for interoperability, thereby avoiding digital balkanization. It also means providing regulatory clarity on stablecoins, dollar-denominated, and tokenized banking liabilities, so that private actors do not perform quasi-central banking functions without safeguards.
And that means advancing a multilateral governance framework that ensures that cross-border digital rails reflect the principles that made the post-1970s system sustainable: openness, transparency, and trustworthy governance.
Such a system is in everyone’s interest. For Europe and China, modernized digital payment systems would enable greater monetary autonomy without the disadvantages of fragmentation. For emerging economies, they would provide a reliable path to reduce exposure to external shocks. And for the United States, they would strengthen supply chain resilience, prevent dependence on rival digital ecosystems, and enhance investment competitiveness by making dollar-denominated assets programmable and attractive as collateral. Moreover, embedding trusted digital identity and compliance standards in the global financial system would expand U.S. influence in trade diplomacy and economic statebuilding.
An open, interoperable, standards-based monetary order could finally offer what neither the Bretton Woods system nor the floating exchange rate regime could simultaneously offer: liquidity, stability, and sovereignty. /Adapted from Project Syndicate /
*Silvia Sgherri is a visiting scholar and associate professor at the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University.
Parane digitale e shpiken horrat cifute te dollarit per te mbijetuar bankat e tyre e florinjte e diamantet i kane fshehur se po dalin Hitleret e rinj ne skene. Me Nuk ballancohet foliri me genjeshtra numerike ne hapsiren e pafund te universit. Nuk mbahen popijt me spiunllekun e internetit e AI. Shtetet e kombet kane marre fund e po e bejne ligjin Hitlerianet e Stalinet "moderne" qe do e pesojne me keq se ata e do ngordhin si qen. Keshtu ka qene e dojete kjo bote jallane mbreteri e qeneri qe ngrihen si kokoshe e me pas thyejne qafen neper gropa fekalesh. E me e bukura eshte se prape dalin te tjere e pesojne po si ata e keshtu rrotullohet kjo bote me galaksine e universin e vet. Te mjeret kafshet e "civilizuara" kujtojne se do jetojne e mbijetojne ne pafundesi.