FLASH
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He promised the Democrats a bigger and more united party. Today, the DP led by him is smaller than it was.
The polls of Eurobarometer and the Italian Piepoli, two reliable companies that have been involved in Albanian elections before, finding their results within the margin of error, once again this week photographed an almost static state of the vote of the two main entities, the SP and the DP plus its allies. The difference between them, if we average the two polls, is about ten points in favor of the SP.
More or less the same difference as the election result four years ago, where the SP came out nine points ahead of the DP coalition. With two significant specifics that are worth keeping in mind in today's calculations:
First, the DP coalition in 2021 lacked the SMI, which competed alone and received 6.81 percent of the vote. So, the votes of the two entities in question were only two percent behind the SP, or about 37 thousand votes less.
Second, the nine-point difference between the SP and the then-DP was significantly smaller in the polls conducted during the campaign and immediately after the closing of the ballot boxes (exit poll). This is strong evidence in support of the then-DP claims that the final result was also distorted by vote buying in the last twenty-four hours of the election. (It should be noted that vote buying is not captured by the polls).
From this evocation of the 2021 result, we see that today, four weeks before the May 11 elections, the PD coalition plus Meta's Freedom Party is about 16 points less, as the difference of 37 thousand votes at that time has multiplied, according to the polls of the aforementioned companies. Thus, the electoral race resembles that of two boats that have started there and there at the start, but have only deepened the distance towards the finish.
When the exact opposite should have happened. The 37,000 vote difference should have been overturned in time; the opposition should have been ten or more points ahead today, heading confidently towards power. All this if we take into account the increased consumption of four more years of government and above all the numerous corrupt affairs of its officials, verified in the courts of justice like never before during these four years.
This is how it would be, in my opinion, if the opposition of the 2021 elections had continued. By uniting, increasing its ranks and renewing its representation in elite forums, it would have won a large number of municipalities in the 2023 local elections; it would have capitalized electorally on international support, the government's failures, its corrupt affairs, the need for rotation, which over time becomes an internal call of the popular majority. Especially when a party's power lasts a long time, as is the case with the SP.
The trajectory of the DP's decline is a sad story that requires entire pages to tell. People have seen it, democrats and oppositionists have lived it. Both those who have been clear from the beginning about the fatal damage of Sali Berisha's retaking the leadership of the country's largest party, consumed twice in power and declared 'non gratta' by the US and Great Britain, as well as those who have believed and continue to believe his narratives where short links, speculation and lies scream.
Everyone can have their own opinion. But the facts are what they are. Berisha set out to challenge his fate with two bullets in his leg in a duel with the USA (everyone has the right to defend themselves), but without balancing the fate of the power rotation in Albania with the appropriate responsibility.
Having led the DP from February 14, 1991 onwards, most of the time as its chairman, other times as chairman of the chairman selected by him (Eduard Selami (1992-1994), Tritan Shehu (1994-1997), Lulzim Basha (2013-2021), Sali Berisha would not face great difficulties in securing majority support in the party once he made up his mind to return.
He promised the Democrats a bigger and more united party. Today, the DP led by him is smaller than it was. He promised them victory, but lost more deeply than ever in the local elections, although the official DP of those days supported his candidates in over eighty percent of the municipalities. He did not read the message of the local elections, he could not announce new elections in the party after it was taken by court decision, considering it a far-sighted non-participation on his part.
After Donald Trump's victory in the US, the Berisha entourage has not stopped bombarding the environment with bombastic news about invitations to Washington, about the ceremonial lifting of sanctions, foolishly making it a fait accompli without having any official evidence in their hands, about a video message from Trump, and so on. Yesterday was the day of the opening of the electoral campaign. Much was expected, but nothing was said. No one spoke on behalf of any Western party or institution.
People need to lie to themselves. It's a kind of therapy. But when lies are used as a tool of manipulation and are compared to the truth in the light of day, they come back as boomerangs. The maxim tells us: there is no success in lies. Nor in ambiguity.
And here we are: The Democratic Party is losing in the polls. The trend is unlikely to change in the few weeks left. The dream of rotation is in danger of being a distant dream, a mirage.
The Socialist Party with Rama at the helm is declared the winner. For a fourth term. Despite all the scandals and black records that are counted every day by the opposition, the critical press, the citizens. So how is this? How does Albania have the most dominant Socialist Party in Europe? How did a government pay nothing for corruption and crime in the system from the successive investigations and convictions of its officials in the central and local government?
Edi Rama, like his predecessors, would win two elections. But it must be said that he has systematically benefited from political favors from the DP. I am referring to the famous tent three months before the 2017 elections, which depicted the party as an electoral machine. It continues with the burning of mandates and the stupid boycott of local elections. It goes further with the separate appearance of the DP and the SMI in the 2021 elections, despite the union suggested by the unilateral constitutional changes by the government. The 2023 local elections were won by the SP by a landslide thanks to the internal crisis of the DP. But it is not meant to end there. Edi Rama's next opposition bonus for the May 11 elections is Sali Berisha. Unless some magic happens, as he himself said. He owes him a statue in the party yard.
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