FLASH
Shkruar nga Ditmir Bushati
Europe needs a clear plan for today's war and tomorrow's peace on the continent. Diplomacy and the building and strengthening of defense capabilities, in the conditions when Russia has chosen war, must go hand in hand.
Despite American efforts, the prospect of a ceasefire in Ukraine still does not seem on the horizon. This is the third attempt within a year. First, in February with the much-talked-about meeting at the White House between Presidents Trump and Zelensky. Then, in August with the meeting in Alaska between Presidents Trump and Putin. And most recently, with the 'Peace Plan' as a starting point for talks between the parties.
The plan, which was drafted without the involvement of Ukrainians and the coordination of Europeans, underwent changes at the Geneva meeting between Euro-American allies and the Ukrainians.
Russia has made it clear that it rejects any ceasefire agreement that does not meet its core demands for more territory, large-scale disarmament and a ban on Ukraine's membership in NATO.
While Ukrainians feel somewhat more relieved after the Geneva meeting and Europeans insist that no one can speak and decide about their sovereignty and security without being present at the table, contacts between the American and Russian administrations continue, with the aim of exploring paths that would ensure a ceasefire and a lasting solution.
Although the White House is keen to reach an agreement as soon as possible, Russia and Ukraine are far apart. Citizens are disillusioned by the war and its aftermath. According to a recent Gallup poll, 69% of Ukrainians want a ceasefire and a negotiated end to the war, compared to 24% who support continuing it until victory. Almost the opposite of what Ukrainians thought during the first two years of the war.
It is an undeniable fact that Ukraine is facing financial difficulties and demotivation of the mobilization force on the war front. On the other hand, the pressure on Russia has not yet reached the peak that would force Putin to accept a deal.
The most controversial issues relate to the occupied territory, the use of Russian as an official language, Ukraine's future membership in NATO and the EU, the use of frozen Russian assets for the reconstruction of Ukraine, security guarantees so that the war does not restart, and the modalities of monitoring a possible agreement.
It is unclear at the moment what security guarantees the US is willing to offer and how the pressure on Putin to accept a deal could be increased. Burned by past agreements that have been systematically violated by Russia, Ukrainians are demanding that US security guarantees be codified in a resolution of the US Congress. American support is indispensable for Ukraine, especially in the field of intelligence and technology.
Europeans were once again surprised by the moves of the American administration, as happened in February and August. Reactive reflexes led to the correction of the plans offered by the Americans, in the absence of a concrete plan on their part, forgetting that a place at the negotiating table is won through concrete actions. All the more so when Europe is shouldering almost the entire financial bill of the war in Ukraine.
Europe needs a clear plan for today's war and tomorrow's peace on the continent. Diplomacy and the building and strengthening of defense capabilities, in the conditions when Russia has chosen war, must go hand in hand. For this, Europe needs an alliance with the United States, as a Russian victory in Ukraine would have greater consequences, in the long run, even for the United States itself.
One of Europe's most important cards, to be the writer and not the consumer of its history, is the use of frozen Russian assets: some $200 billion, located in bank accounts mainly in Belgium. The combination of improved weapons systems for Ukraine, financial support and the renewal of the agreement with the IMF, together with the escalation of measures and sanctions against Russia would increase the economic costs to Putin of continuing the war.
Despite continued diplomatic efforts to end the war, it seems that much will be decided on the battlefield.
Lini një Përgjigje