FLASH
Shkruar nga Eduard Zaloshnja
The Electoral College that will emerge from the November 5 elections in the USA will consist of 538 electors from the 50 states of the American Federation (the number of electors for each state depends on the population of each state).
In the states where Kamala Harris of the Democratic Party will win, electors selected by her will be appointed. While in those where Donald Trump of the Republican Party will win, electors selected by him will be appointed*. To be declared the winner, one of the candidates in the race must have at least 270 electors voting for him.
RealClearPolitics and Silver Bulletin are two portals that calculate daily averages of the latest polls conducted in each state – the former calculates simple arithmetic averages, while the latter calculates weighted averages. By statistically combining the averages of these two portals, it turns out that if the elections had been held today in the USA, Kamala would have won in enough states to ensure her 270 electors in the Electoral College, against Trump's 268 electors.
In the map below, the states colored in solid blue (the color of the Democratic Party) would be won today with high statistical certainty by Kamala. While in the states colored in light blue (Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin), Kamala's lead is only millimeters. On the other hand, states colored solid red (the color of the Republican Party) would be won today with high statistical certainty by Trump. While in the states colored in light red (Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina) Trump's lead is only millimeters.
In such a balanced statistical situation, the importance of the Kamala-Trump televised debate is extraordinary – a mistake by one of the candidates during the debate could unbalance the race…
*Washington, DC, although not a state, sends 3 electors to the Electoral College. Only Maine and Nebraska send electors on a roughly proportional basis. Elsewhere, the majority principle is used (who wins even by 0.01% in a state, secures all the electors of that state).
Lini një Përgjigje