FLASH
Shkruar nga Ben Blushi
Israel will subjugate Gaza, and Iran will subjugate the region. Iran is like a thug who claims to have nuclear weapons and every time he goes around the neighborhood all the neighbors have to hide.
It is difficult to understand what business a country has that attacks another country, since the latter is being defended by a third country. Iran attacked Israel because its army dismantled Hezbollah, which has been attacking it from Lebanon for years.
This seems absurd.
it is the same as if Greece attacks Albania, because this has neutralized a gang that operates in Montenegro and that drops bombs on the villages of Shkodra. And when they say to Greece, what are you doing, she says, this gang is mine because it is orthodox.
Iran is doing this too.
However, it is not as simple and absurd as it seems.
Iran is protecting three gangs it has created for decades by supplying them with money, weapons and courage. These gangs that attack Israel every day are Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen. Although they have not succeeded in destroying Israel, they have successfully destroyed the three countries where they operate: Gaza, Lebanon and Yemen.
From ancient times, Iran has a high self-destructive capacity that is apparently contagious.
Yesterday's attack of more than 200 rockets that killed no one only demolished the roof of a restaurant across the territory of Israel was a firework over the foggy skies of Gaza, Lebanon and Yemen to give these ruined gangs a ray of light. It was a match in the tunnel where they have been living for a long time.
The militants hiding in the basements of Gaza and Lebanon last night poked their heads out and their eyes shone with the flames pouring down on Israel.
But when the night fell and the sparks went away, they put him back in the bunker because they know that tomorrow will be even worse. Iran bled the skies but could not do any damage on the ground. This attack, launched in the heat of the moment and without making any tactical calculations, will undoubtedly have the opposite effect, so much so that Iran seems to have launched missiles against itself.
And here's why.
First, the attack was militarily so weak that apart from exposing Iran's military inferiority it had no value on the ground. Most of the rockets did not fall on Israeli soil but were destroyed in the air. Iran's heavy artillery found no significant targets. it's like shooting an unbreakable glass with a machine gun. If you can't change the glass, you have to change the automatic transmission, but apparently Iran has so many options. Israel is the training ground of his military failure. A few days later, Israel will also attack Iran, and the damage it can cause will appear even greater after this military pit.
Second, after this attack, the entry of the Israeli army into Lebanon will not be stopped as the final destruction of the wounded Hezbollah is even more justified. Without Hezbollah, Iran is weaker, as it is weaker today even without Hamas. The frightened Hezbollah militants scattered in bunkers in Lebanon will be captured, eliminated or disappeared, but until this happens completely, unfortunately millions of people will turn into refugees as is happening these days everywhere in Lebanon.
Thirdly, Lebanon is returning to an almost compatible country and this situation will continue for a long time. This country, once the pearl of the Middle East, has been weakened by internal financial and political crises for years, and the blow it is taking from Israel risks putting it out of business for several years. An ungovernable country with a ruined economy and a non-existent army means one less ally for Iran, which set out to destroy an enemy but is destroying its friends.
Fourthly, this conflict that has been going on for a year and that started with the massacre of Israeli civilians on October 7, has seriously called into question the Palestinian state or the two state solution. The Palestinian state, stymied for decades by Israel, was mortally wounded by Hamas a year ago and is almost being killed by Iran now. Even the Palestinian parties themselves no longer have the power and international allies to defend their state, which today seems to have been lost in the desert. Perhaps this opportunity, not well used, is over forever, because whoever comes to power in Israel would not agree to give more rights to the Palestinians after the events of the last year. The devastated Gaza can be administered by the West but not by Hamas anymore. Hamas is a dead animal. But the wounds of his claws on Israel's skin cannot be closed only with medicine, but also with medicine, as is happening. The conflict in the Middle East is now fueled by the hatred inserted between the sandwich of the political calculations of Israel and America.
Fifth, the international community's faltering support for Israel will be strengthened. All those who have criticized Israel for its violent interventions with civilian consequences in Gaza and Lebanon will recoil a little. From every corner of the world you see, Iran looks blacker than Israel, because the former is attacking, while the latter is defending. Iran is attacking another country without being attacked by it. This will isolate Iran even more and perhaps create the effect that everyone has been waiting for decades for something to change from within. But even if this does not happen, that is, if the Iranian regime does not fall from within, as liberals everywhere in the West have hoped, maybe Iran will fall from outside. A full-scale attack by Israel and the United States against Iran is never ruled out, after the latest event. Maybe it would have happened if the US elections had not prevented it.
Sixth, this attack will change America's policy towards Iran, having an impact on the elections, which has long been one of Netanyahu's main goals. Netanyahu has placed the strongest bet on the planet for the outcome of these elections. Even in Israel's most difficult days, it has slyly refused President Biden's demands for a cease-fire in Gaza. Netanyahu knew that the cease-fire would be sold as a victory in America, and so he has used Gaza as a vote against the lenient administration of the Democrats. it is clear that Netanyahu is awaiting Donald Trump's return to power in the hope that he will help end the Iranian regime. And despite the fact that Trump is unpredictable, this is not excluded. Iran has therefore made a mistake twice because by falling into Israel's trap, it has strengthened the most aggressive wing against it in the American elections. With the latest attack, Iran is helping to choose its enemies. Israel's main goal is to draw America into the final war against Iran, and it is achieving this with the generous help of Iran itself.
Seventh, the Sunni Arab countries in the region from Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, etc., will all increase the degree of cooperation against Iran. They know that Iran threatens them more than Israel. Israel will subjugate Gaza, and Iran will subjugate the region. Iran is like a thug who claims to have nuclear weapons and every time he goes around the neighborhood all the neighbors have to hide. The Palestinian issue would be much more solvable if Iran were a more friendly and democratic country. If Gaza were a normal country where elections were held and where parties are changed by votes, there would be no Hamas and no violence. Then Israel would be in trouble and the two-state solution would be a right won through political means and supported by the entire West. But Iran is directly responsible for favoring the hard line by killing democracy in Gaza and strengthening the local thugs of Hamas who, before coming to power, eliminated all Palestinian liberals. Even because it sows only authoritarianism and kills every sprout of democracy, Iran has fewer and fewer allies every day, and the latest attack looks more like a forewarned suicide. Like a bomb going off in your pocket.
Therefore, the fireworks that Iran threw last night over the skies of the world are a public announcement that the suicide has begun and will not stop.
Lini një Përgjigje