FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
The Americans could help the movement if they publicly hold Vucic responsible, as they have recently done with the Prime Minister of Kosovo, Albin Kurti, who did not submit to the dictates of the State Department...
Last Saturday's fifth mass protest against the president of Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic, was the largest to date. It seems that people in Serbia have run out of patience. Originally sparked by 2 horrific gun massacres, the protests have now broadened their scope and are focusing on ousting President Aleksandar Vucic, freeing the media from government control and ending the culture of violence.
The protesters have my sympathy, but…
I can't help but have sympathy for the peaceful protesters. Serbia re-elected Vucic with 60 percent of the vote just 14 months ago in a formally free but far from fair election process. But it has been clear for some time now that a large part of Serbian society is unhappy with his increasingly authoritarian rule, use of violence and insensitivity to environmental problems.
While the political opposition is highly fragmented and ineffective, the protest movement is thus far proving united and stable. The question is whether it will be strong enough to lead to the overthrow of Vucic. And I doubt it.
Because while it is common to mention the overthrow of Slobodan Milosevic in October 2000, it is often forgotten that those mass demonstrations were in support of the election results.
Milosevic had just lost the elections he had called ahead of time, thinking himself invulnerable.
President Vucic has spoken about the possibility of holding early parliamentary elections in September of this year, but has not yet decreed the date. Before doing so, he will want to be sure he will win the race. Also, he is adept at using state resources and jobs to secure political support.
Vucic still has some cards to play
Aleksandar Vucic also knows how to play the other usual cards of Serbian politics. Last weekend he organized his own demonstration, using quite a few ethno-nationalist slogans. At the same time, he provoked a new clash in Kosovo between Serbs and Albanians, with the aim of distracting attention from the developments inside Serbia.
These gave him the justification to mobilize the Serbian army, and to deploy additional units on the border with Kosovo, claiming to protect the Serbs of Northern Kosovo. Although in fact it was the latter who attacked the Kosovo police, who were defending the assumption of office by the non-Serb mayors elected in the April local elections, who, under the instructions of Vucic, were boycotted by the Kosovo Serbs.
There is no doubt that Aleksandar Vucic has other cards to play. He can arrest and harass protest organizers. Likewise, it can organize clashes inside Serbia, requesting the intervention of the police.
Mediat serbe, të cilat kryesisht i injorojnë protestat kundër qeverisë, mund t’i propagandojnë më fort dhe më me forcë lavdërimet ndaj tij. Gjithashtu, ato mund të zmadhojnë kërcënimet e supozuara ndaj serbëve në Kosovë.
Vuçiç mund të mbështetet tek aleatët e tij tashmë të mirë-konsoliduar në Uashington dhe Bruksel, duke nxitur frikën se çfarë do të ndodhte nëse ai do të rrëzohej nga pushteti, duke lënë rrugën e hapur drejt pushtetit të një të djathte edhe më etno-nacionaliste.
Teknologjia e mbikëqyrjes së Pekinit dhe ndihma e Moskës për shërbimet serbe të sigurisë, do të bëjnë ç’është e mundur për ta mbrojtur atë. Shumë serbë fajësojnë tashmë ambasadën amerikane për mbështetjen e Vuçiç.
Diçka po zien dhe amerikanët mund të ndihmojnë
Ajo çfarë po zien në Serbi këto kohë, mund të rezultojë të jetë më afatgjatë dhe më e fortë se sa Vuçiç. Por që të jetë e suksesshme, kjo lëvizje do të duhet të minojë shtyllat që mbajnë në këmbë autokracinë elektorale të Vuçiç: Partinë e tij politike, ushtrinë dhe shërbimet e sigurisë, Kishën Ortodokse Serbe dhe mbështetjen aktuale që i vjen nga Uashingtoni, Brukseli, Moska dhe Pekini.
Që të ndodhë kjo, do të duhej të kishte një përçarje në elitën qeverisëse, e cila sot për sot nuk është e dukshme. Qytetarët dhe politikanët ende të guximshëm, duhet ta sfidojnë regjimin aktual me një program politik popullor si dhe me protesta të vazhdueshme.
Of course, the Americans could help the movement if they publicly hold Vucic responsible, as they have recently done with the Prime Minister of Kosovo, Albin Kurti, who did not submit to the dictates of the State Department.
But Washington still wants to delude itself that Vucic will finally anchor Serbia in the Western alliance. Mitigation is the preferred approach in relation to it. The illusion that Vucic will ultimately choose the West still has a strong hold on the State Department. /Taken from "Dtt.net"
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