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Real Madrid are given a 54.8% chance of beating Arsenal inside 90 minutes in Wednesday's second leg, but only an 8% probability of reaching the semi-finals.
Only four teams have lost the first leg of a Champions League tie by at least three goals and progressed – Deportivo La Coruña (vs Milan in 2004), Barcelona (vs PSG in 2017), Roma (vs Barcelona in 2018) and Liverpool (vs Barcelona in 2019).
Arsenal are unbeaten in three Champions League matches with Real Madrid and could become the first team to keep three consecutive clean sheets against them in the competition.
There have been 47 occasions when a team has taken a three-goal lead in the second leg of a UEFA Champions League knockout tie, and only four of those teams have been eliminated.
So the signs are good for Arsenal as they travel to the Santiago Bernabéu to face Real Madrid, hoping to reach their first Champions League semi-final since 2009.
Los Blancos have become famous for their European attacks, pulling off a great escape to beat Bayern Munich en route to winning their 15th continental crown last year, having done the same against Paris Saint-Germain, Chelsea and Manchester City in 2021-22.
But after two sensational free kicks from Declan Rice helped Arsenal win 3-0 in the first leg at the Emirates Stadium last week, Carlo Ancelotti's men need their best comeback yet.
In the 53 previous matches that Madrid have played against English teams in the European Cup/Champions League, they have only managed to win by more than three goals on two occasions.
They beat Derby County 5-1 in the round of 16 in 1975-76 and Tottenham Hotspur 4-0 in the quarter-finals of 2010-11.
If reports from Spain are to be believed, Ancelotti's job is in serious jeopardy and only a similar counterattack will be enough to give him a chance to lead Madrid next season.
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