FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
The convincing victory over Paraguay has increased enthusiasm in the USA, but statistics and World Cup history show that the road to the trophy remains very difficult...
The United States, Mexico and Canada have all started the World Cup in their home countries with positive results. The US team made the biggest impression, defeating Paraguay in their opening match. Although the opponent is not considered one of the tournament favorites, the success has sparked a wave of optimism in the United States.
After the successful debut, the American media reacted enthusiastically. Sports newspaper The Athletic called the first half of the match “perhaps the best the United States has ever played in a men’s World Cup.” Other media outlets also praised the home team’s performance.
However, the main question remains: how real are the chances of winning the trophy?
According to mathematician Jonas Bächinger, the prospects are limited. Before the tournament began, he simulated the entire World Cup in a million Monte Carlo simulations, including every match and every qualifying round according to official FIFA rules. The results give the USA only a 1 percent chance of being crowned world champions. In the ranking of probabilities, 18 national teams appear with higher chances. Switzerland also comes in slightly ahead with 1.16 percent, while Mexico and Canada are each estimated at 0.4 percent.
History is also not in favor of the organizers. Since France's triumph in the 1998 World Cup, no host country has managed to win the World Cup. In fact, during that period, no organizer has even reached the final.
In the history of the tournament, only six countries have won a World Cup held on their own territory:
France (1998) – won the final against Brazil 3-0. Zinédine Zidane scored two goals and led the team to the title
Argentina (1978) – defeated the Netherlands 3-1 in the final, with Mario Kempes the main protagonist
West Germany (1974) – won against the Netherlands in Munich, with Franz Beckenbauer as captain and Gerd Müller scoring the decisive goal
England (1966) – triumphed 4-2 against West Germany at Wembley, in the final famous for Geoff Hurst's "Wembley goal"
Italy (1934) – beat Czechoslovakia after extra time in Rome
Uruguay (1930) – won the first World Cup final in history, defeating Argentina 4-2 in Montevideo
History shows that home field advantage does not guarantee success. However, after a promising start to the tournament, American fans have reason to dream. For now, however, the statistics suggest that achieving that goal remains a major challenge.
Lini një Përgjigje