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There are at least three countries - two of them members of NATO, the other on the way to join - that have warned during the last month that Russia may attack one of the countries of the military alliance.
Romania's army chief of staff, General Gheorghita Vlad, has said that all of Europe should be concerned about Russia's intentions. In an interview given to Radio Free Europe on February 1, he said that his country must urgently adopt a legal framework that would enable civilian volunteers to attend military training.
"I think that the Russian Federation will not stop in Ukraine. If she wins in Ukraine, her next target will be Moldova. We will see tensions in the Western Balkans as well. I am more than convinced that the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, will escalate his policies in the near future", said Vlad.
Russia has launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, bringing the war to Romania's northern border. Just two weeks before General Vlad's statement, Germany's Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said Russia's increasingly bellicose president Vladimir Putin could attack the NATO military alliance in less than a decade.
"We hear threats from the Kremlin almost every day... so we have to keep in mind that Vladimir Putin could attack a NATO country as well. According to our experts, this can happen within five or eight years", he said.
A similar alarm has been issued by Sweden - the country that, after more than two centuries of peace, is only a few steps away from NATO membership. The commander-in-chief of the Swedish army, General Micael Byden, said on January 8 that all Swedes should mentally prepare for the possibility of war.
"Russia's war against Ukraine is only a step, not an endgame. "I don't want to upset people, but I want them to think about their situation and their responsibilities," Biden said.
The Secretary General of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, said in an interview for the German broadcaster, ARD, on February 4, that there is no immediate military threat against any NATO member country. However, the chairman of the military committee of the national leaders of the alliance, Rob Bauer, said on January 17 that NATO countries "should be on red alert for war" and "expect the unexpected."
The Kremlin itself, through spokesman Dmitry Peskov, has said that European officials who talk about the prospect of war with Russia try to portray Moscow as an enemy.
However, the cases when Putin has indirectly threatened NATO countries, which help Ukraine with weapons and logistics, have not been rare. "Russia has more nuclear weapons than NATO countries," he said at an economic forum in Saint Petersburg last year.
Analysts say that the countries that border Russia or are close to it, have long felt anxiety about the imperial ambitions of Putin, who has considered the dissolution of the Soviet Union as "the biggest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century".
Retired US Army General Douglas Lute, who also served as the United States' permanent representative to NATO, speaks on Radio Free Europe's Expose program:
"Anyone who has been paying attention over the past two years takes the threats from Vladimir Putin seriously. He has proven that he is willing to break every international rule established over the past 75 years... right down to the UN Charter, which governs the principles of national sovereignty and territorial integrity. So if he is willing to break the UN Charter and every other major international agreement, then potential threats to territories beyond Ukraine are credible," says Lute.
Concerns in Europe have also been increased by the large increase in spending on the military and the arms industry in Russia. According to some documents leaked last year, Russia would increase its military budget for 2024 by almost 70%, namely to 107 billion euros.
Mark Cancian, a retired US Marine colonel, tells Expose that the Russian military has the most combat experience in the world and that this gives it an advantage over many NATO countries. He does not believe it can rebuild its capabilities quickly - perhaps not for a generation - but says NATO must be vigilant.
"NATO's preparations are not equal. Countries in Eastern Europe are very concerned, they are increasing their military budgets, increasing the size of their armed forces and preparing on the ground. The problem is that NATO countries to the west are less concerned. The Germans have been criticized for not doing more. Even in other countries, the concerns are not great and the level of spending on the military continues to be below 2%", says Cancian.
Under NATO rules, the 31 member countries must spend at least 2% of gross domestic product on defense, but not all do so. Collectively, NATO has increased defense spending by about $190 billion since 2014, when Russia first invaded Ukraine.
Currently, the alliance is testing its readiness in a long military exercise, which began in late January and will last until the end of May. With 90,000 troops involved, it is considered NATO's largest since the end of the Cold War.
General Lute says that NATO should give priority to the integrated air and missile defense system. This should be at the top of the alliance's plans for modernization, according to him.
"NATO does not have an integrated system like the one that protects Ukraine today. This should be a concern for all allies. Ukraine has the most sophisticated air and missile defense in Europe, and yet it is not enough. NATO has talked in the past about prioritizing air and missile defense, but I think the threat is now very real," says Lute.
Another concern expressed by General Lute is the possible return of Donald Trump to the White House. During his time as president, Trump has threatened to leave NATO, and more recently, there have been reports that he has vowed not to help allies if any are attacked.
The US presidential election is held this November. General Lute says that, if Trump is elected, US support for Ukraine, or even its leading role in NATO, is likely to be reduced starting next year.
"If there is one thing that is vital to the success of NATO, it is predictable American leadership. Donald Trump defies predictability. And this is very bad for the alliance", says Lute.
Even Cancian echoes these statements. He says that the fear is real that NATO, without American leadership, would not be effective in curbing aggression, especially from Russia.
"American forces in Europe make the United States' commitment to European security important. They are an integral part of the defense in Eastern Europe, and especially in Poland and the Baltic countries", says Cancian.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine - which Moscow calls a special military operation - has sparked the biggest confrontation between the West and Russia since the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962.
The American president, Joe Biden, has warned in 2022 that the direct confrontation between NATO and Russia would cause the Third World War. Russian officials have said several times that claims by Western politicians that Russia might attack a NATO country are nonsense.
However, the West has also fresh Russia's constant denials that it would attack Ukraine in 2022./ REL
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