FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
A bullet nearly killed the man who is vowing revenge if he returns to the White House. A spirit of revenge is haunting America.
It's not just Donald Trump who dodged a bullet. Half an inch to the left and the bullet that hit Trump's ear would have turned him into a martyr. It is not known what would have caused his death.
As it is, the reprehensible attempt to assassinate Trump will have deep repercussions for American democracy. Within seconds of being covered by Secret Service agents, Trump was shouting "fight, fight, fight" to the crowd. The instantly ubiquitous photo of him pumping his fist against a background of the stars and stripes will become his campaign emblem.
A high-trust society would have waited for the facts of the shooting before jumping to conclusions. By this measure, America is close to the brink. Two of the Republicans who were auditioning to be Trump's vice president blamed Democrats for stoking hatred of Trump. The front-runner, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, said Biden's campaign rhetoric "led directly to the assassination attempt on President Trump."
Tim Scott, a senator from South Carolina, said "Democrats' inflammatory rhetoric puts lives at risk."
Elon Musk, the owner of Company X, where the statements were posted, was quick to cast doubt on a conspiracy as to how the attacker could have gotten so close.
"Either extreme incompetence, or it was intentional," Musk wrote.
Many on the left were just as quick to claim that the shooting was a staged or fake operation to boost Trump's electoral prospects. It is notable, however, that no senior Democratic official has yet fueled these rumors. The identity of the alleged attacker, a 20-year-old named Thomas Matthew Crooks, offered little help. Although he was a registered Republican and an enthusiastic gun owner, he had made a small donation to a pro-Democrat group. It is plausible that like most American killers, Crooks was acting alone and delusional. That won't stop political entrepreneurs from blaming the shooting on their ideological enemies.
The bigger question is what Trump will do with it. No honest account of America's fetid climate can ignore the fact that the former president himself is the country's most influential exponent of political violence. He described those who attacked Capitol Hill with knives on January 6, 2021 as "unbelievable patriots."
He mocked an attack on Paul Pelosi, the husband of former Democratic Speaker Nancy Pelosi, after one of his supporters smashed his head with a hammer. And he encouraged extremist militias to "stand by" just before the 2020 elections. In quieter democracies, an incident as deadly as the near-killing of a party leader with an AR-15 semi-automatic rifle would lead to bipartisan calls for arms control. There is no chance that Trump's party will change its mind on this subject. The number of AR-15s in America has been estimated to be as high as 44 million, which puts comparisons with previous periods of political violence in the US into perspective.
Whether Trump will have a sustained surge in sympathy remains to be seen. But already three conclusions can be drawn.
The first is that the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee this week will be dominated by his impending defeat. The Trump campaign is extremely adept at choreographing optics to enhance his message. Iconic images of the fist-pumping candidate bravely rising from his near death will fill the convention stage. Trump is expected to name his running mate in the next couple of days — possibly as early as Monday. Expect the nation to be gripped with admiration or fear of the use to which Republicans have made Trump's martyrdom ready. At Trump's first presidential convention in Cleveland in 2016, the streets around the main hall were filled with arm-waving private militias. Policing the streets of Milwaukee this week will be an extremely busy challenge, even by America's standards.
Second, Joe Biden will likely take at least a temporary break from the internal Democratic debate if he should withdraw as his party's nominee. Although it seems like much longer, the 17 days since Biden blew up his CNN debate with Trump have been consumed by an increasingly bitter contest between Democrats. The passions behind this dispute — who would be best suited to defeat Trump in November — remain just as important. But the focus will now turn to Trump. The Biden campaign said it was suspending its ads against Trump's attack on Sunday. It will be surprising if this lasts more than a few days. There are five weeks left before the Democratic convention in Chicago. It would also be a surprise if calls for Biden to resign did not revive.
It is too early to speculate that Trump's already good electoral prospects are not now imminent. In 1981, Ronald Reagan had a huge ratings boost after he was shot by a lone gunman. This growth evaporated within weeks. But it's fair to say that an already existential choice is now significantly more fraught than before. Violence was already implicit in much of the rhetoric. Now it is clear. It is always tempting to point out that guns and political assassination are a staple of the American republic. This is true compared to other democracies. But the conditions in 2024 are unique. A bullet nearly killed the man who is vowing revenge if he returns to the White House. A spirit of revenge is haunting America./ Adapted "Pamphlet" from "Financial Times"!
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