FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
After a long period of stability, gold has returned strongly to the international markets scene as one of the most sought-after assets.
Since the beginning of 2025, the price of gold has increased by nearly 50%, reaching a historic level of over $3,800 per ounce, and according to forecasts from some of the world's largest banks, such as JP Morgan, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs, the price could reach more than $4,000 by 2026, and perhaps even $5,000, if current trends continue.
The strong rise in the price of gold is supported by three main factors: US monetary policy, central bank trends, and the behavior of institutional investors.
1. Lowering interest rates and returning inflation
The US Federal Reserve (FED) has resumed its policy of lowering interest rates in an effort to cope with the economic slowdown and pressure on the labor market. In September, the FED cut the rate by 0.25 percentage points, even though inflation remained above its 2% target, reaching 2.9% in August.
Historically, gold has risen sharply during periods of falling interest rates and high inflation. Bank of America reports that since 2001, gold has risen an average of 13% annually during similar times. JP Morgan also shows that in almost every recent Fed rate cut cycle, the price of the precious metal has risen an average of 7% in the nine months that followed.
2. The decline in confidence in the dollar and US bonds
Another key factor is the shift of central banks' foreign exchange reserves into gold. Geopolitical uncertainty, high US debt and trade tensions have made gold seen as a safer alternative to US Treasuries. Central banks – especially those in developing countries such as China – have significantly increased their purchases of gold.
In the second quarter of 2025 alone, central banks bought 166.5 tons of gold, while purchases for the full year are expected to be between 700 and 800 tons. China, which currently holds only 8% of its reserves in gold, aims to increase this share to 20%, which could translate into sustainable demand for the years to come.
3. Increased interest from investors
In addition to institutions, private investors and ETFs are also showing growing interest in gold. According to Bloomberg data, ETFs investing in gold have reached a record value of $112.5 billion, the highest level ever.
The gold market is relatively small, only 4% of all global investable assets, so even small capital reallocations can have a big impact. JP Morgan estimates that every $10 billion invested in gold can increase the price by about 3% in the short term.
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