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“If it works, I’ll take credit. If it doesn’t work, I’m blaming JD!” That’s what Donald Trump joked to a reporter on Wednesday at the G7 summit in France, when asked why he wasn’t personally attending the signing of his initial deal with Iran.
As it turned out, JD Vance, his vice president, also didn't go. The memorandum of understanding was signed by Trump remotely, and further talks between the US and Iran in Switzerland today, which were to be led by Vance, were postponed.
But, with Vance poised to take the lead in the next phase of negotiations with Tehran, was Trump really kidding when he said he would blame him if things went wrong?
There are no easy answers now.
The vice president is poised for his biggest role yet in the global spotlight, according to Reuters news agency, which also notes that what happens next could decide whether Vance can replace Trump in the White House one day.
As we have explained all week, this initial agreement deals with the easier stuff, specifically, a simple exchange of Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz to global shipping and ending the US blockade of Iranian ports in return.
He fires the gun symbolizing the start of a 60-day ceasefire, during which talks are expected to continue.
Despite starting out talking about regime change and some other war goals, Trump has ultimately settled on a priority, repeatedly saying recently that the final deal must prevent Iran from having a nuclear weapon.
There will be many in Iran's leadership who, whatever they may publicly agree to at the moment to facilitate U.S. attacks, now think even more than before that equipping themselves with a nuclear bomb is the only way to stop future aggression against them by their enemies. This may be a difficult problem for Vance to solve.
Vance, the ambitious 'architect' of the deal
The rapid developments coincide with the publication of Vance's book on his conversion to Catholicism, "Communion," and a media tour to promote it, during which he discussed his faith while positioning himself as the main promoter of the Iran deal.
The campaign-style push culminated on Thursday with a White House news conference, where Vance laid out U.S. hopes for a final peace deal and offered one of the strongest rebukes of Israel in American history, while also dismissing a question about a potential presidential run.
"If the Iranians do not change their behavior, their military and their nuclear program will be destroyed again. If they change their behavior, then they will have a transformative relationship with the Middle East, and the Middle East will have a transformative relationship with the people of Iran ," Vance said.
Other Republicans have underscored the importance of Vance's high-profile role in the Iran deal. Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, a leader in the party's foreign policy establishment, called Vance the "architect" of the peace deal and said the vice president should submit a final deal to the Senate for approval.
Trump ran for president promising lower prices and an end to what he called "eternal wars" in the Middle East.
Vance was a particular advocate of avoiding foreign involvement and putting "America first," and there were reports of tensions between the two over this issue when the US and Israel attacked Iran in late February.
Some Republicans are critical of the U.S.-Iran deal for handing out too much money in an effort to bring prices back under control by reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Vance has had to defend the president's decisions while trying to create some distance from Trump's plummeting approval ratings.
He has tried to do this by showing marginal economic improvements, while declaring that "there is much work to be done."
Vance told conservative talk show host Megyn Kelly earlier this week that he remained engaged in the Iran war because distancing himself from the effort would be "a very immature way to approach the political process," while accusing hardline conservatives of seeking to continue US strikes "until every bomb is dropped, or until every Iranian is dead."
Trump's tactics during the trial to divide his potential successors
Trump appears to have elevated Vance as the face of the Iran deal instead of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, traditionally the country's top diplomat, prompting questions from administration allies about Rubio's role in the negotiations.
State Department spokesman Tommy Pigott said in a statement: “Secretary Rubio and the entire administration are 100% in close alignment with President Trump.”
A White House official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations, added that no one on Trump's team expressed opposition to the interim peace deal.
Rubio is also seen as a contender for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, although neither he nor Vance have said they plan to run for president.
However, the move to promote Vance is typical of how Trump has managed cabinet officials in his second term, said a person close to the White House, who asked not to be identified to speak freely about internal matters.
"This conversation is confusing people, but Trump knows what he's doing. He's conducting a real-time test," the person told Reuters.
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