FLASH
Shkruar nga Andrea Muratore
The conflict in the Persian Gulf has caused a collapse in global supply, turning a price crisis into a real physical shortage of kerosene, the fuel for jets. Without a quick diplomatic solution, its rationing and the cancellation of thousands of flights are paralyzing the movement of people and international trade...
Global aviation fuel supply is collapsing as a result of the long-term surge of the Third Gulf War. Despite the outcome of complicated US-Iran negotiations to avoid a new escalation after June 2025 and the period February-April 2026, the situation is not expected to improve in the short term.
Due to a price problem, jet fuel is now facing a real physical shortage. After Lufthansa announced that it will cut at least 20,000 flights by the end of the year and 7 Italian airports warned of fuel rationing, it is becoming increasingly clear that the crisis is structural in nature.
Fuel for planes is becoming increasingly scarce.
Geopolitical analyst Aidan Simardone published on his X platform profile a graph showing the structural decline in the amount of kerosene transported by ship globally.
There is a drop of about 40 percent compared to January, when about 5,000 tons were transported per day, compared to about 3,000 tons today. At the heart of the crisis is the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, combined with the damage to oil supplies and refining capacities of Gulf countries, caused by the Iranian response to the Israeli-American attack.
According to the American television network CNBC, about 25-30 percent of global jet fuel passes through this sea route, so its disruption has severely shaken markets. But where is the blow felt most?
In countries that depend more on imports to meet daily consumption, especially in developed economies where aviation fuel is used for logistical, commercial and civil flights, as well as to support international tourism.
Who depends more on imports?
According to analyst John Kemp, the UK (8.4 million tonnes), Germany (5 million) and Australia (4.7 million) are the largest importers of jet fuel. Italy ranks seventh in the world with 2.2 million tonnes per year, behind France (fifth) and ahead of Switzerland (ninth) and Ireland (eleventh), reflecting the structural weaknesses of the air transport sector.
A structural weakness
These vulnerabilities are turning into systemic dependencies. The risk for European countries is comparable to that of Asian countries, which are facing serious shortages. For all, there is the risk of a wave of inflation, fueled by shortages of kerosene and aviation-related products.
While airlines are lowering their profit expectations, the prices of this vital resource remain high. Even in the US, which has greater domestic production capacity, prices have increased by nearly 50 percent since the start of the Third Gulf War.
According to Bloomberg, the shortage is also affected by increasing military demand, which is diverting a large part of the supply from the civilian market to the defense sector. This development creates a critical scenario not only for the finances of airlines, but also for the very structure of globalization, hitting the ability of air transport to connect countries and facilitate trade and the movement of people.
Like previous crises such as September 11, 2001 or the Covid-19 pandemic, the Third Gulf War is touching one of the most sensitive arteries of the global system, making the world, at least temporarily, smaller and more fragmented. / Pamphlet from "Inside Over"
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