FLASH
Shkruar nga Paolo Rossetti
Moscow has significantly increased its attacks, to show the Ukrainians its potential and to discourage the latter's ambitions for revenge. Since 2022, Russia has built a war economy, based on the sale of gas and oil, as well as the modification of industry in the war sector.
This gives it the opportunity to continue supporting its military campaign in Ukraine. On the other hand, Kiev is increasingly in trouble, but above all its partners, the US and the EU, do not know what to do. They limit themselves to grandiose declarations, but do not send aid and have no real strategy.
For the Italian general Fabio Mini , former NATO chief of staff for Southern Europe and commander of NATO's peace operations in Kosovo, the only way out in this situation would be for the great powers to sit around a table and begin to imagine a future without guns.
Russia and Ukraine are unlikely to reach a peace deal. In this context, the weakness of NATO stands out, which heralds major military exercises this year. This is a way of being active, but on the other hand it masks the impossibility of finding a solution to the conflict. Only Great Britain has clear ideas. It wants to play an increasingly important role and become a reference point for the Atlantic Alliance in Northern Europe, blocking Russia's access to the Baltic Sea.
The British secret service talks about a 27 percent increase in Russian attacks but also an increase in bombings. What strategy is Moscow currently implementing? Has he realized that Ukraine is in trouble and is aiming to take advantage of the situation?
From the technical-military point of view, it is a preventive operation, a reaffirmation of strength and will to weaken the confidence of the opponent, in the concrete case of the Ukrainians, that they can succeed in this war. An escalating operation aimed at undermining confidence in the possibility of victory by relying on the help of international allies. In fact, Zelensky has started repeating the statement: "Give us a hand to win." Moscow aims to dismantle this rhetoric of victory.
Bombings of cities have become more and more frequent. Does Moscow want to weaken the resistance of the civilian population?
The target is not civilians per se. The most important structures and infrastructures located in residential centers are targeted. Russia has a great capacity to destroy cities, but probably does not have the will to raze everything to the ground.
I was surprised by the words of the Slovak Prime Minister, according to whom Kiev had nothing to do with the war, because there everything seems to be going on normally: people regularly go to work, then in the evenings they frequent bars. If a capital like the Ukrainian one can allow people to move freely, to see their political leaders on television, all over the world, it means that the Russians do not want to change this kind of situation.
How is Moscow managing to support its military plans?
I have predicted that the Russians would go from "special operation" to official admission of war, which has not happened yet. At least at the level of international communication, Moscow is not treating the situation as a conflict. However, it has moved into a war economy, by
turned the main attention to the defense industry
Russia is aware that it has an old but efficient legacy of its industrial capacity. And it has brought many new jobs: people now have a salary, whereas before they only had unemployment benefits. And financial resources continue to fuel government efforts.
One of the channels for obtaining financial resources is the mines controlled by the Russians in Africa. In particular, they exploit the gold that comes from Sudan, Central Africa and Mali. Where does their strength come from to continue the fight?
For Russia, gold was one of the cornerstones for starting the war. She had large reserves of gold which she spent. The gold for which it has concessions in Africa, and profited by keeping dubious regimes afloat, is a kind of guarantee for the future.
The Russians are behaving like the Chinese. In African countries they engage in large structural projects, something the World Bank would not even dream of financing. However, the use of gold will occur when the situation has calmed down, taking advantage of the fact that the circulation of these resources today is done without moving even a single gram. Everything is done on paper.
So what is the real source of war financing for the Russians?
First, gas and oil exports. Despite the embargo, Russia is today the country that exports the most energy. And the cost of oil and gas is falling. It is us Europeans who do not understand what is happening, as we are tied to US imports and those indirectly linked to the US. But there is a parallel market, involving Russian resources, that Moscow feeds off.
In the West, there is talk again about the F16 planes that will be sent to Kiev. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen promises more funds will be released for Ukrainians, and the EU reiterates its support. But is the reality that of a western front that does not know what to do?
The US has actually spent $151 billion on Ukraine. But 90 percent of this amount remained in America. That for the military industries or for those who provided weapons or other types of aid. This is also accepted by members of Congress. Active investment for Ukraine is consumable: materials such as tanks are subject to destruction, damage. Consumption is for immediate survival, not long-term investment.
How long can Ukraine resist in these conditions? Can't we at least start thinking about a backup plan, an alternative resolution to the conflict?
The only alternative to get out of this war is for the great powers to sit down and decide what to do. If we are to expect the Russians and Ukrainians to reach an agreement on their own, it will be years. At some point there will be a clarification of history: the situation will be good for everyone, as long as there will be no major events. The problem is that the big ones are paralyzed. In the US it is not known who will win, the UN does not have a correct position and the EU does not have a real foreign policy.
What about NATO?
The Atlantic alliance is blocked, and does not know what to do in Ukraine. Only the English have clear ideas. Others are waiting to see what the US will say. This year, about 20 military exercises are planned, which will be presented as a testimony of great strength and unity.
They pose a danger, because they are ideological provocations. But they serve to hide the fact that we do not have the capacity to have an open stance against Russia, nor to support Ukraine to recover part of the territory occupied by Moscow. Exercises hide the embarrassment of not knowing what to do.
Turkey approved Sweden's entry into NATO, while the Baltic countries have announced joint defense structures against the Russians. Has Northeast Europe become a crucial hub for the Atlantic Alliance?
Yes, and the main actors in this shift of attention from Central to Northern Europe are the English. They intend to take over the leadership of the Atlantic forces in Northern Europe. And they intend to do this through the bilateral defense and military cooperation agreement with Lithuania and Finland. And they are doing this with Poland and Sweden as well. Closing the Baltic Sea to the Russian base in Kaliningrad is the major project of the British. During the new exercises, there will be simulations in the Polish and Lithuanian territory, precisely to deny the freedom of movement of the Russians in the North Sea./ Pamphlet adapted from "Il Sussidario"
Lini një Përgjigje