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Many German politicians hope that Joe Biden will be re-elected president. But Berlin is also preparing for the worst-case scenario - a possible Trump victory.
After the assassination of Donald Trump and the highly symbolic photo of him with a bloodied face raising his fist after the attack, many in the US think that Trump is now almost unstoppable. Even the Republican Party convention taking place in Milwaukee, USA, officially confirmed Trump as the presidential candidate amid loud applause.
Even German politicians believe – or rather fear – that Trump will be the next president of the USA. Some of them have not hidden that they do not like Trump. At the G7 summit in Italy in June, Chancellor Olaf Scholz made it clear that he would prefer Joe Biden to be re-elected as president.
After the assassination of Donald Trump and the highly symbolic photo of him with a bloodied face raising his fist after the attack, many in the US think that Trump is now almost unstoppable. Even the congress of the Republican Party that takes place in Milwaukee, USA, officially confirmed Trump as the presidential candidate amidst loud applause. German politicians also believe - or rather fear - that Trump will be the next president of the USA. Some of them have not hidden that they do not like Trump. At the G7 summit in Italy in June, Chancellor Olaf Scholz made it clear that he would prefer Joe Biden to be re-elected as president.
Transatlantic affairs expert Dominik Tolksdorf of the German Association for Foreign Policy thinks it is not good for German politicians to publicly take sides. "Everyone knows what the risk is," Tolksdorf told DW, "but at the same time German politicians have no influence on the election campaign in the US - they have to be prepared for his victory and it's best to stick with anti-Trump rhetoric".
JD Vance: "I don't care what happens to Ukraine"
The appointment of JD Vance as a candidate for vice president also caused concern in Germany. The head of the annual Munich Security Conference, Christoph Heusgen, told the Reuters news agency that Vance had made his position clear at this year's February meeting in Munich: "The US will set different priorities in the future, Europe must take care of its own defense and also take over the main burden of supporting Ukraine that the US now bears.” In a podcast in 2022, Vance openly said, "I don't really care what happens in Ukraine."
Also, Vance has made many statements about Germany that most German politicians probably won't like. In addition to his complaints about Germany's insufficient defense efforts, he has called Germany's energy policy "idiotic." Regarding the increase in support for the right-wing AfD party, he said in an interview in February that the reason is "growing resistance to mass migration" and that European elites do not listen to ordinary people. Like Trump, Vance favors blanket taxes on imports to protect US industry, which would have a big impact especially in Germany, whose economy is export-oriented.
Dependence of Germany and Europe on the USA
According to the expert on transatlantic issues, Dominik Tolksdorf, "Germany and Europe are today much more "vulnerable" than in 2016, because Russia threatens not only Ukraine, but all of Europe, and Europe is still very dependent on the US in terms of of security policy". However, according to him, today at least Europeans can appreciate Trump better than in 2016.
"The best way for the German government to prepare for a possible Trump scenario is to expand support for Ukraine as well as prepare to secure and organize much more support in the future," the expert thinks. Germany should be prepared that a request of the type may come from the Trump administration: "If you want to be sure of our support in NATO, you Europeans must prove that you are a reliable partner, which means investing much more yourself and contribute to the common defense".
Berlin prepares for the worst-case scenario
This time Berlin will be better prepared. Michael Link, coordinator for transatlantic cooperation at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, members of various parliamentary groups in the Bundestag and the German ambassador in Washington are participating as observers in the congress of the American Republican Party in Milwaukee.
"We will have to work with every president, because transatlantic relations are not about individual preferences, but about a central and necessary constant of the foreign policy of the Federal Republic of Germany," Link told German media.
The German government still hopes that Joe Biden or another Democrat will win the election if Biden withdraws from the race. But suspicions about Biden's weakness are growing, and Berlin is beginning to prepare for the worst-case scenario.
What would change for Germany if Trump is elected president? Dominik Tolksdorf says: "Relations would cool down a lot, but we still have to find ways to maintain reasonably constructive relations."/DW
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