FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
At first glance, the Hungarian prime minister's visit to Washington turned out exactly as he had planned: lavish praise and exemption from US sanctions on Russian oil, gas and nuclear supplies. And this came just five months before a difficult election in Hungary.
But if you look more closely, the picture becomes more complicated. The US reached a tough and costly trade deal for Hungary.
Meanwhile, there was no progress on the biggest issue that worries Orbán: ending the war in neighboring Ukraine, which continues to cast a shadow over his country.
The strongest point of the agreement was the exemption from US sanctions, which according to a White House official will last only one year, although Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó said it will be indefinite in time.
The deadline appears to align with Trump's desire to help his friend win the April election. The exemption also partially aligns with the European Commission's demand that member states stop importing Russian energy by the end of 2027.
From the EU's perspective, Orbán's political commitment to meet this goal, a commitment that the Czech government has made and delivered, is lacking. The EU is trying to tighten energy sanctions, which has angered Hungary and Slovakia.
Out of the media spotlight, Hungarian energy company MOL has modernized two refineries, one in Százhalombatta (Hungary) and one in Bratislava (Slovakia), to process Brent crude instead of high-sulfur Urals crude from Russia.
MOL stated that 80% of oil needs could be covered through the Adria pipeline from Croatia, albeit with higher logistical costs and technical risks.
Thus, Orbán's claim, which impressed Trump, that Hungary has no alternative to Russian oil, may not be entirely true.
From 2022 to the end of 2024, Hungary and Slovakia together paid about $13 billion for Russian oil.
However, the one-year exemption from sanctions is a significant relief for Hungarian families this winter. Orbán told pro-government journalists that without the exemption, energy bills “would have tripled in December.”
Hungary can continue to buy Russian gas through the Turkstream pipeline, paying in hard currency ($185 million in August alone), using a scheme via Bulgaria. Orbán has agreed to buy liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the US worth $600 million.
In the nuclear field, Hungary will buy fuel rods from the US for the Paks 1 plant ($114 million), in addition to supplies from Rosatom (Russia) and Framatome (France).
The Russian project to expand the Paks 2 plant has been delayed due to technical and licensing problems. The lifting of nuclear sanctions by the US could help restart the project, but major challenges remain.
Hungary has agreed to buy American technology to extend nuclear waste storage capacity in Paks, at a cost of between $100 million and $200 million.
The biggest part of the deal is a commitment to buy up to 10 small nuclear reactors from the United States, worth between $10 billion and $20 billion. These reactors will power giant Chinese battery factories being built in Hungary.
A currency swap agreement between the central banks of the United States and Hungary, similar to the US-Argentina peso support agreement, is also being discussed. This would provide Budapest with dollars in the event of a financial crisis.
In conclusion, Hungary has reached an agreement to purchase gas, nuclear power, and unidentified weapons systems from the US, in exchange for a temporary exemption from US sanctions on Russian energy.
But it failed to reinstate the US visa waiver system, which was scrapped in 2022, which has hurt bilateral trade. It also failed to set a new date for a possible Trump-Putin summit in Budapest, part of efforts to end the war in Ukraine.
Critics say energy dependence on Russia is being replaced by dependence on the US. Orbán's government argues that it is achieving greater diversification of sources./ BBC
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