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Rajoni dhe Bota2024-07-10 08:25:00

What does Viktor Orban want to achieve?

Shkruar nga Pamfleti

What does Viktor Orban want to achieve?

"This is important for Hungary and the entire European Union," he says in this video that he published when he was in Beijing to pave the way for talks and added that "we will continue our work."

Although he did not explicitly state that he was presenting the European Union, some people thought that he intended to leave such an impression.

Kaja Kallas, the EU's foreign policy commissioner, said earlier that Orban was "using" the Hungarian presidency of the EU Council to "create confusion" about European policy on Ukraine.

In a tweet dated July 5, Orbani admits that he has not received a mandate to conduct negotiations on behalf of the EU. However, he sent different signals when he added that “we cannot sit idly by and wait for the war to magically end on its own. We will serve as important actors to take the first steps towards peace."

The EU harshly criticized Orbán after the meeting he had with Russian President Vladimir Putin, stressing that he "is not representing the EU in any way."

German Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck said that Orban's meetings should be seen as bilateral issues and not within the framework of any official commitment to the EU.

However, Orban is proving once again that he is the enfant terrible in the bloc of 27 member countries. Experts say Orbán's latest efforts are part of a long-term plan to present himself as the leader of Europe's far right, and to support Republican US presidential candidate Donald Trump's return to power.

What are Orban's political goals?

There is nothing new in Hungarian Prime Minister Orban's support for Russia or China. In the last two years, he has repeatedly opposed European Union sanctions against Moscow and tried to block aid to Ukraine.

And at a time when the EU is trying to expand trade not with China but with other countries, and reduce the risk of critical raw material supply chains, Budapest has embraced trade with Beijing, starting this May a strategic partnership comprehensive.

Julien Hoez, a political adviser and expert on EU affairs, says Orbán's recent games are aimed at increasing support for him in Hungary, after his Fidesz party suffered its worst-ever election result in last month's European elections. sometimes. Although Orbán's party and its allies took 44 percent of the vote, they lost votes that went to Peter Magyar, a man who has been close to Orbán but has become a fierce rival and is seen as a serious threat.

But this is only one of the wishes that Orban carries with him. He will also present himself as the leader of the extreme right of Europe, which is expanding and thus create an "illiberal axis" from the US to Europe, says Hoez.

"He is trying to present himself as the leader of Europeans who are skeptical of Europe, who are more interested in having relations with China or Russia or who do not want to mix with others at all and generally show isolationist tendencies of of all kinds like those seen in the US.”

The right-wing grouping in the European Parliament "Patriots"

On Monday, Orbán's Fidesz party entered a new far-right grouping in the European Parliament, which also includes the leader of the French far-right, Marine Le Pen. This right-wing group is called "Patriotets". Experts say that the formation of this group, combined with Orban's visit to Beijing, was to show Trump's supporters in the US how important Orban is.

Along with presenting himself as the leading figure of Europe's extreme right, Orbani also wants to present himself as someone who has been made of the same dough as Donald Trump.

Moderator of Trump in Europe?

Pierre Haroche, an assistant professor of European and international politics and a fellow at the Jacques Delors Institute, says Orbani is currently doing the "preliminary work" to get the most out of it if Trump wins and is re-elected US president.

"Orbán is working to reach an agreement that he thinks will be accepted by Trump," says Haroche. "Trump has said that he will end the conflict (war in Ukraine) within 24 hours. Orban wants to be able to say, I have spoken to the interested parties in the meantime, and thus turn himself into an irreplaceable moderator.'

"Having influence in the EU through a grouping would make Orban more useful to Trump," the expert adds.

Orbán's games have shocked Brussels

At the next meeting of the permanent representatives of the EU member states, they will surely discuss the role that the next presidency should play and whether Hungary can be a reliable mediator.

Experts say that the EU has nothing else to do to punish Orban. A "nuclear option" that would limit Hungary's rights under Article 7 of the Treaty on European Union is often whispered about, but is not thought to be used this time.

Meanwhile, in response to Orbán's aforementioned post on X, Trump's son, Donald Trump Jr., hailed the Hungarian leader as a peacemaker "like mine."

Orban takes the next step in Washington. Now it is being speculated whether he will meet with Trump during his stay in the US, or simply attend the NATO summit in honor of the 75th anniversary of the creation of the alliance./DW

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