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What are the advantages and disadvantages that Kamala Harris has?
Kamala Harris is already in pole position, ready to start the race and confident that she can defeat Donald Trump. Joe Biden gave her a valid but not decisive endorsement.
There are at least two scenarios between now and the Chicago Convention, which should ratify the Democratic nomination for the White House.
The first scenario appears to have been set in motion as soon as Biden took a step back by announcing his support for the vice president. Other authoritative supports have already arrived, if this movement were to become more pronounced it could cause an avalanche. In this hypothesis, the Democratic Party is rallying around Kamala to resolve the crisis as soon as possible.
Because this is a crisis, we cannot recall another instance in recent history where a party was forced to change its running mate just one hundred days before the vote (not to mention that in some states possible to start voting earlier). The advantages of a handover of the baton from Biden to Harris now, is precisely to not waste time to get the running ticket.
Second , there is also an economic benefit: it is easier to withdraw funds already collected, because donors have poured them into an account called the Biden-Harris campaign, and one of the two surnames is unchanged (but it is not forbidden to those funds are transferred to other potential candidates).
And the disadvantages? Two again.
The first one is called Kamala. In these almost four years, her image has never moved.
Polls give mixed and unexciting answers on Kamala's ability to defeat Trump. But let's forget about polls: they are worth little. A basic theme is this: Beyond his old age, Biden is unpopular because opinion of his presidency is generally negative, with most Americans (including many Democratic voters) thinking the nation is "on the wrong track."
Having been number two for the past four years, Kamala cannot campaign without taking full responsibility for Biden's policies. She certainly cannot improvise an "opposition" campaign or distance herself from any aspect of the Biden presidency. Therefore, by removing the age factor, it is partially weighed down by the same element that penalized Biden.
Republicans have already begun to signal their main line of attack against Harris: "The one file that Biden delegated to her, immigration, was a disaster." She only had to take care of one thing, and that very thing is one of the reasons why Trump can be re-elected today. Illegal immigration is a major obstacle for Harris, for more than one reason.
The radical left, that "without borders" led by Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, considers Kamala a real traitor. On her first trip as vice president to Central America, Harris declared: “We don't want you in the United States. Stay where you are. We will help you stay in your home."
The right accuses him of the opposite: those words were not followed by facts, because illegal entries continued to increase. And these clandestine entries are one reason why Democrats are also losing support among blacks and Latinos. Uncertainty about border control scares the working classes, even if they are of foreign origin. Additionally, illegal work creates unfair competition in the labor market, which impoverishes both blacks and Latinos. Harris is vulnerable from all angles here. And as the Republican propaganda says: "If she failed miserably in the one file entrusted to her, imagine if she had to govern everything else, from the economy to the fate of the world."
Finally, the disadvantage of the first scenario is that the semi-automatic transition is managed by the party structure, confirming the suspicion that the Democratic Party is controlled by elites.
The second scenario . An "open" convention in Chicago—numerous nominations, debate, and actual confrontation before delegates and public opinion—would be a tribute to democracy. However, getting Kamala out will be problematic. She was chosen not for her modest skills, but because she was a woman and black. Its failure will lead to accusations of racism and sexism. Moreover, her candidacy risks confirming in white America - almost 60% of voters - that the left only protects the rights of minorities and offends those of the majority. It's a trap Biden walked into in 2020 to appease the radical wing.
A hundred days will probably be enough to erase some of the effect of the attack in favor of Trump. They risk being outnumbered to rebuild Kamala's credibility, or to delicately and tactfully manage her departure in favor of another candidate or others. The benefit of reopening the games by ditching Biden is that at least the focus shifts, we're finally talking about something other than his old age or Trump's miracle rescue.
An open convention would have the advantage of organizing a real debate in front of thousands of delegates—representing the grassroots: on the future of the left, on a project for America. From Gov. Gavin Neesom's Californian prescription to the pragmatic moderation of his colleague Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, Democrats can go head-to-head and let the base have the last word. / Adapted "Pamphlet" from "Corriere Della Sera"
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