FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
Prigozhin may not win and the foundations of Kremlin control may not crumble, but a weakened Putin may do absurd things to demonstrate his power...
Russian President Vladimir Putin is facing the most serious threat in his 23 years in power. It's impressive to see his dominance crumble overnight, as Wagner's attack was an inevitable and impossible move.
Inevitable, since the mismanagement of the war meant that only a system as closed and immune to criticism as the Kremlin could survive such an adventure, and impossible, since Putin's critics simply disappear, fall out of windows, or are poisoned.
However, now the world's fifth largest army is facing a fratricide where soldiers turn their guns on their own countrymen.
We have become so used to viewing Putin as a master tactician that Wagner's boss Yevgeny Prigozhin's steps of defiance were sometimes dismissed as a sham, an attempt by Putin to keep his generals on edge with a loyal successor as their outspoken critic.
But what we are seeing today with Putin forced to admit that Rostov-on-Don, his main military hub, is out of his control puts to rest any presumption that this was all the Kremlin's idea.
However, it is possible that Wagner had planned this operation long ago. The justification for this rebellion appeared to be spontaneous on the occasion of an air strike on one of his camps, which the Russian Ministry of Defense denied.
Meanwhile, a few hours later Prigozhin spoke about the real cause of the war, Russia and the Russians were not threatened by a NATO attack. The only lie he insisted on was that the Russian high command was behind the invasion plan, not Putin himself. His forces were quickly assembled and hurried towards Rostov. This is hard to do in an afternoon.
Perhaps Prigozhin believed he could push Putin to change the leadership of the Defense Ministry, which he has publicly lambasted for months, but Putin's speech on Saturday morning eliminated any such possibility.
Now it's an existential choice for the Russian elite between the president's shaky regime and the dark mercenary Frankenstein, who has finally turned against his master. In such a situation it is a moment of truth for the Russian army as well.
Ukraine, on the other hand, is probably celebrating the rebellion among Russia's ruling classes, as it could turn the tide of the war in Kiev's favor. But uprisings rarely end in Russia or anywhere else with the results they set out to achieve. The departure of Tsar Nicholas II to Russia in 1917 led to the Bolshevik Revolution, Lenin and then the Soviet Empire.
Prigozhin may not win and the foundations of Kremlin control may not crumble, but a weakened Putin may do absurd things to demonstrate his power.
He may prove unable to accept defeat in the coming months on the front line in Ukraine, which could lead to discontent among his armed forces and a lack of control over their actions.
Russia's position as a responsible nuclear power rests on stability.
It is impossible to imagine that the Putin regime will ever return to its previous heights of control from this point forward. And it is inevitable that further turmoil and change lie ahead. /Taken and adapted from "CNN"
Lini një Përgjigje