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Houthi militants have vowed to retaliate for US and UK military strikes in Yemen, driving key oil tanker operators away from the critical Red Sea trade route.
Oil prices climbed above $80 a barrel for the first time in 2024 on Friday as the US and UK hit targets following more than 25 attacks by Houthi militants on ships since November.
UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said the strikes, including US missiles and four RAF Typhoon fighters, were "necessary and proportionate" after Houthi attacks had endangered the lives of commercial sailors, targeted US and UK warships and had increased the prices of goods.
Energy traders warned that oil prices could rise further as the conflict stemming from the Israel-Hamas war threatens to escalate into the wider region and cause further disruptions to supply chains.
The International Association of Independent Tanker Owners (Intertanko), which represents almost 70 percent of all oil, gas and chemical tankers traded internationally, warned members on Friday to "stay well clear" of the Bab al-Mandab Strait for first time.
Houthi leader Abdul-Malik Badr al-Din al-Houthi had warned of increased attacks, saying in a video posted on X that they would be more significant than those "conducted recently", when drones and missiles many targeted US and British warships.
Some of the world's biggest tanker operators confirmed they would avoid the region, in a move that could add significant time and cost to shipments from the Middle East to Europe.
While 91 percent of container ship traffic was already avoiding sailing past Yemen, oil carriers had so far been more willing to use the route, with analysts reckoning tanker trips had fallen by less than a fifth before on friday.
Intertanko said the "threat period" for shipping could last for several days, if not longer.
The UK's Dubai-based Merchant Marine Operations Office, which provides security advice, reported an attempted attack on a ship on Friday afternoon, as well as numerous incidents of small boats approaching merchant ships.
The office said a missile was fired at a ship in the Gulf of Aden, 90 nautical miles southeast of Aden. The area is further south than the site of previous attacks.
Brent crude rose 4.3 percent to $80.75 a barrel, the highest level so far in 2024, before easing slightly.
"The main question is whether this military action will achieve Washington's intended goal of not jeopardizing the Red Sea or expanding this three-month war," said Helima Croft, a former CIA analyst at RBC Capital Markets. .
Bob McNally, the founder of Rapidan Energy and a former White House adviser to George W Bush, said he calculated that oil prices could rise by about 15 percent if the conflict showed further signs of spreading. "A possible escalation between Israel and Iran's main proxy, Hizbollah in Lebanon, is still an underestimated risk," McNally said.
Increased shipping costs
The diversion of container ships has already caused problems for the European industry, with Tesla confirming on Friday that it had suspended operations at its electric car manufacturing plant in Germany due to delays in receiving parts. Some manufacturers are using air shipping for critical parts.
Fears of a prolonged outage have pushed container shipping costs to their highest level outside of the coronavirus pandemic. The average cost of moving a 20-meter container from Shanghai to Rotterdam rose 8 percent this week and has doubled since December to $3,103.
The companies have stressed, however, that while painful, the rise in shipping costs is not as bad as during the pandemic, when supply chain disruptions drove them up to $20,000 per container on the China-to-Europe route, helping to the promotion of inflation globally./Capital
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