FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
In Russia, he is considered the most capable analyst of interpreting Vladimir Putin's thinking. It is no coincidence that every autumn, Fyodor Lukyanov, 58, Director of Research at the Valdai Club, interviews the President during a meeting organized in Sochi by the most important Russian research center in the field of international politics. This meeting took place last October, when Lukyanov discussed the most important international political issues with Putin. Il Giornale met with him at the Valdai Club in Moscow.
Dr. Lukyanov, what are Putin's conditions for an immediate ceasefire?
"Putin has always been very clear about this. The main condition is the complete withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Donbas. This point was made very clear during the meeting with Trump last August. There should be no Ukrainian forces present in the territories recognized by the Russian Constitution."
So, should the Ukrainians also withdraw from the territories that you haven't taken yet?
"Exactly. According to the Constitution of the Federation, as amended in 2022, Donetsk and Lugansk are legitimate parts of Russia. Therefore, this is an essential prerequisite for stopping military activity and starting a peace process."
The request has few precedents.
"It's true. Historically, there aren't many precedents of countries being willing to abandon territories without being completely defeated, but sometimes things change."
Politically it is difficult to accept this...
"Political reasons are important, but they only matter as long as you are able to fight. Once you lose that ability, political reasons no longer matter."
Europe rejects these conditions...
"I must remind you of what Putin has been repeating since 2022. We, he says, propose some conditions and you reject them? Okay, but don't forget that future conditions will inevitably be worse. In 2022, this may have sounded arrogant. Today, it reflects the reality of the facts.
Did the greatest nation in the world fight just to gain two small regions?
"Of course not. The memorandum, some called it an ultimatum, presented to the US and NATO in December 2021 was about security in Europe. Putin made it clear that Russia was not satisfied with a security architecture that guaranteed Europe through NATO expansion."
Today Europe is even less available...
"This is true, but diplomacy alone was not enough to achieve the objective. No one gives up their privileges without war. After the Cold War, Europe, NATO and the US convinced themselves that they could ignore Russia's demands. In short, the conditions for conflict had been present for some time. Now we have to see what will happen when the West realizes that Ukraine is unable to resist. This turning point will open up new scenarios. Some positive, others very dangerous."
Dangerous? Many European leaders fear you will attack Europe. Are they right?
This is propaganda or self-deception. Europe's problems do not depend on Russia, Trump or the war in Ukraine. The problem is the inability to adapt the initial model of European integration to current reality. Terrorizing Europeans with the threat of a Russian attack serves to cover up this inability. The ambiguity is obvious.
On the one hand, they argue that Russia is weak because it has not yet defeated Ukraine; on the other, they claim that it will immediately turn its attention away from Europe. The two are incompatible. And in any case, attacking Europe would be foolish. Not only do we lack the capacity, we lack the will and the need.
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