FLASH
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It's time for Joe Biden to get tough with Netanyahu on a hostage deal and a plan for the day after the war.
An uneasy calm descended on the Middle East on Thursday. As clashes subsided on the Lebanon-Israel border, diplomatic efforts to avert the worst went into overdrive. Hezbollah laid to rest its slain commander Fuad Shukr and Tehran held a funeral procession for Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh.
But a humiliated Iran and a divided Israel look set to lead the Middle East further into a dangerous spiral of violence. The red lines have moved and the rules of the game have changed. There is an additional layer of danger. Not only were the assassinations, which followed a rocket attack that killed 12 children in the occupied Golan Heights, seen as a general setback to the ceasefire negotiations, they are also a serious breach of trust between those negotiating.
Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman al-Thani wrote on Platform X: " How can mediation succeed when one side kills the negotiator from the other side ," referring to Haniyeh.
Worse, in Lebanon, a newspaper close to Hezbollah accused US envoy Amos Hochstein of misleading his Lebanese counterparts and held him responsible for Shukr's murder. Hochstein had been trying for months to reach a deal that would bring calm to Lebanon's border with Israel, potentially including one that would be independent of a Gaza ceasefire. The paper warned those speaking to Hochstein in Lebanon not to do so.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu can now choose to put the murders of Shukr and Haniyeh on his so-far-empty victory table, appease his right-wing coalition allies, take comfort in the fact that the Knesset is in recess until October, and show some flexibility in the ceasefire negotiations. On Thursday, Israel also confirmed it had killed Hamas military commander Mohammed Deif in an attack three weeks ago in Gaza, although Hamas refused to confirm.
" If Netanyahu wants a path to end the war, he certainly has it. But the question that has been with us since October 8 is: does he want one ," a senior Gulf official told me .
If he has, he showed no sign of it when he made a televised statement Wednesday after the two assassinations. Arab officials are concerned that Netanyahu sees regional escalation as his best chance to stay in power. Tehran has aimed to avoid such a scenario and, for that alone, has been on the same page with the White House since October.
However, Iran and Hezbollah will now try to restore their prestige after a stunning security breach in both Tehran and the southern suburbs of Beirut, a Hezbollah stronghold. They will want to reassure their allies, proxies and base that the so-called axis of resistance can still provide protection. They will also want to inflict pain on Israel, more than they have so far, but not so much as to provoke an Israeli overreaction. Speaking at Shukr's funeral, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah warned that it would be Israel's response that would determine whether all-out war would break out.
We've seen this dirty movie before. In April, Israel crossed the Iranian red line by killing senior members of the Revolutionary Guard inside the Iranian consulate in Damascus. Iran retaliated two weeks later by launching hundreds of missiles and drones at Israel. Iranian military action was highly choreographed and telegraphed in advance. Israel was ready to take the hit – Iron Dome, Centcom and regional coordination ensured that almost all missiles were intercepted.
This time retaliation is likely to come on multiple fronts, not just from Iran, and will be more difficult to capture and control. In April, the Biden administration advised Israel to curb its reaction and win. Israel-Iran enmity, long fought in proxy wars, came to the fore for a brief dramatic moment and retreated back into the shadows.
A little over three months later, here we are again. This choreography of missiles and death is dangerous. These are not war games, but real life. And as Iran and Israel fight it out, settling old scores rather than working toward a way forward, Gaza is in ruins, local health officials have declared a polio epidemic, and more Israeli hostages have died.
It's time for Joe Biden to get tough with Netanyahu on a hostage deal and a plan for the day after the war. That day is now. When this latest installment of the nightmare series no one subscribed to is over, Biden's message to Israel should be clear: Choose between strike, victory or deal! / Adapted "Pamfelti" from "Financial Times"
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