FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
An unexpected "kingmaker"...
Poland is in the final hours of a presidential battle that could reshape the country's course, not just politically but also geopolitically. The runoff between liberal and pro-European candidate Rafał Trzaskowski and conservative nationalist Karol Nawrocki has become a duel that will decide not only traditional voters but also, perhaps especially, far-right voters.
Sławomir Mentzen, the leader of the Konfederacja party, did not win the race, but he has gained power. With 14.8% of the vote in the first round, he has become the "kingmaker", forcing both rivals to negotiate with him if they want the support of the 2 million voters he controls.
"You will bypass me if you want our votes," Mentzen said with the arrogance of a negotiator aware of his own weight, turning the campaign into a series where the far right is writing the script.
Trzaskowski on the edge of hope
The face of the liberal camp, Warsaw Mayor Trzaskowski, has proven that he can win, but not without cost. With 31.4% of the vote, he came out on top, but not enough to feel secure. Tusk's government sees in him the opportunity to unblock reforms that current President Andrzej Duda (PiS) has sabotaged with vetoes and obstructions.
A victory for Trzaskowski would bring in an allied president who could pass laws that have been blocked for years: from liberalizing the birth control pill, to recognizing regional languages, and reforming the Constitutional Court, the cornerstone of the crisis with the EU.
But for this to happen, it will be necessary to win over Mentzen's populist extremism and a faltering conservative center.
8 conditions, 1 blackmail and millions of votes
Mentzen does not hide his plan: he has presented a list of eight conditions that, according to him, are the basis of a political "pact." The list contains points such as rejecting Ukraine's membership in NATO, maintaining the Polish veto in the EU, protecting physical currency, and cutting taxes.
This platform, a mix of classical nationalism and ultra-liberal economics, is a tool for pressure. They call it political blackmail, but it works. Analysts claim that this part of the electorate, especially young people and disillusioned citizens, do not identify with anyone but Mentzen. Therefore, efforts to attract them are difficult.
Election or referendum for or against Europe?
The June 1st runoff is more than a presidential vote: it is a referendum on Poland's direction. Trzaskowski wants a Poland at the heart of the EU and active in NATO. Nawrocki follows the Trumpian, Eurosceptic line, promising an independent foreign policy and domestic armaments.
Brussels is watching anxiously: a Nawrocki victory would mean new tensions, weakening support for Ukraine and a deadlock in EU reform. For Tusk, this is the last chance to consolidate government power without being hindered by the presidency.
One race, many consequences
Poland's path to Europe lies with the far-right. And therein lies the great irony: the fate of liberal, European, and democratic reforms could be decided by a protest vote that sees the EU as an enemy and Brussels as a colonizer.
This is the Poland of 2025: torn between progress and nostalgia, between Brussels and Trump. And everyone is waiting to see who will win Mentzen's heart. / Pamphlet
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