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The fight against the admission of Kosovo to the Council of Europe and against the Resolution on Srebrenica, the commitment to the European path, the visit of the Chinese leader, the proximity to Russia... Is Serbia's foreign policy "schizophrenic" or strategic?
Stormy diplomatic spring in Serbia: The visit of the Chinese president, the fight against the resolution on Srebrenica in the United Nations, the visit of Olena Zelenski and the Foreign Minister of Ukraine, the campaign against Kosovo in the Council of Europe, Vucic's speech in Russia...
Important foreign policy events are lined up. Some would say, full of inconsistencies and disorientation of Serbian foreign policy, which some analysts describe as "schizophrenic". Declaratively still on the European path, Serbia or, more precisely, its president Aleksandar Vucic, is trying to find allies from all sides. To outside observers, this looks like a foreign policy rainbow, where you can't find any system.
Propaganda promoting the regime
Dushko Lopandiç, chairman of the Forum for International Relations, points out to DW that Serbian foreign policy "has many similarities" with domestic policy. Just like the Serbian Progressive Party, which is a so-called "catch-all" party - as a party that it requires votes from everyone - even foreign policy and diplomacy have been extended in all directions, Lopandić believes.
"This broad diplomacy is primarily used to promote the regime and for internal propaganda. We have a very unsuccessful foreign policy in terms of European integration and regional cooperation. The regime is implementing a kind of foreign propaganda policy" , our interlocutor assesses.
However, our second interlocutor thinks that there is a system in this policy. "The focus is now on two axes - with America and with China," says Igor Novakovic from the Center for International Affairs and Security.
"The European Union is in third place, while Russia is in fourth place. Now all the cards are placed in some real-politics, which is based on a certain kind of transactional relationship, which aims to keep the existing elite in power. Since they control all the processes in the country, they can lead such a complete foreign policy", believes Novakovic.
Dushko Lopandić, on the other hand, talks about improvisations - about the important visit of Chinese President Xi, which is not on equal footing, as well as about the visit of the Ukrainian delegation, which "primarily concerns relations with America".
"One day the EU is criticized, while the next day it is said that we are on the European path. It is a kind of game that raises the question of the price of such a policy, and this price is not small" , warns Lopandić.
Serbia and Ukraine - illegal reports
The visit to Serbia of the wife of the Ukrainian president, Olena Zelenski, and the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Dmitry Kuleba, is interesting due to the fact that the media of the regime barely reported on this visit. Igor Novakovic notes that "the government equally controls the pro-Russian and pro-Western narrative in the media. This reduces the importance of the West and the EU on the one hand, while on the other hand it prevents some deeper manipulations from the Russian side."
The Serbian regime has been running an anti-Western campaign for a long time. At the same time, he did a small pro-Russian campaign, says Dushko Lopandiç.
"It is really interesting that this visit was recorded very little, as very modest, because there was not only the wife of the Ukrainian president, but also the foreign minister. This is also due to the fact that public opinion has a predominantly pro-Russian attitude. this understanding, the acceptance of the heads of Ukraine is certainly not popular at the moment", says Lopandić.
The following days will certainly be marked by the announced adoption of the Resolution on Srebrenica at the United Nations. Igor Novakovic appreciates the struggle of the authorities in Belgrade against this Resolution as support for Milorad Dodik.
"Paradoxically, this story came at the right moment for Vucic and Dodik, who have many internal problems. This topic can now be used to mobilize people," Novakovic assesses.
In this context, the political leaders of Serbia and Republika Srpska announce the holding of a kind of big "Sabor" on June 8 in Belgrade. He will attend the session of the UN General Assembly on Thursday (23 May), where the Resolution on Srebrenica will be discussed, as well as the local elections in Serbia (2 June).
Dushko Lopandić sees this joint "Sabor" as part of a "populist-nationalist campaign". "It is part of the ideology of the regime in power, which originates from its radical roots. The noise made about this Resolution is related to the roots of Vučić, because we remember that Vučić once pasted posters with the name of Ratko Mladić on the name of Zoran Boulevard Djindjic", recalls Lopandic.
Serbian diplomacy made great efforts to prevent Kosovo's entry into the Council of Europe, which for the moment succeeded. On Friday (May 17), Kosovo was not on the agenda, because the countries of the Quint insisted on the beginning of the formation of the Association of municipalities with a Serbian majority, which Prishtina rejects.
Our interlocutors are not sure that this is a diplomatic victory for Serbia, but rather talk about the wrong steps that Pristina has taken. "This result was brought about by the non-cooperation that Kurti has been showing for years with the international factor and his denial of a part of the Brussels Agreement", concludes Dushko Lopandiç.
Even Igor Novakovic has a similar opinion: "Kosovo will probably go to extraordinary parliamentary elections, and any move that suggests that the Association could be something more than an ordinary non-governmental organization could be harmful to Kurti." In this way, the Kosovo authorities are behaving very similar to the Serbian authorities, quite transactional and unwavering"./DW
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