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The world woke up today to the news that Donald Trump is reconsidering whether to escalate the war in Iran.
Despite the US president's rise to political prominence largely based on promises to end so-called "eternal wars" such as the US interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan, he says he is considering sending "ground troops" to occupy an Iranian island.
But perhaps we shouldn't be surprised given his interest in oil, as evidenced in Venezuela this year and in comments dating back to the 1980s about Iran.
If Trump decides to commit US forces to occupy Kharg Island, there are two very different schools of thought on how this could go.
Two experts who spoke to the American network NBC News last week, before Trump's recent comments, also revealed the consequences of occupying the island.
Francis A Galgano, a former US Army lieutenant colonel who is now a professor of military geography at Villanova University, told NBC: "If the plan is to win a war against Iran, then taking Kharg Island should be one of the central missions of the conflict.
"It offers the US a great deal of leverage in any negotiations and is a 'stick' to force the Iranians to stop attacking the ships."
"Trump would bet that the remaining Iranian leadership, faced with the loss of tens of billions in annual revenue, would capitulate," Christian Emery, an associate professor specializing in U.S.-Iran relations at University College London, told NBC.
But “military success is by no means guaranteed,” he added, with “the real risk that it could escalate into a much more dangerous situation.” Kharg is less than 20 miles from the Iranian mainland, well within range of missiles, artillery and drones, according to Emery. It is also hundreds of miles into the Persian Gulf, meaning any US force would need at least a day to reach it, “giving Iran time to mine the surrounding waters and prepare defenses,” he said.
Even if the US were to capture the island, Emery added, "holding the position would be extremely challenging." Ultimately, he believes it "would be an absolutely disastrous decision that would ensure the conflict would drag on for many months."
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