FLASH
Shkruar nga Emanuel Pietrobon
Biden's national security adviser's diagnosis turned out to be wrong, as the complacency of the Israeli secret services was unfounded, just like the predictions of those who believed that a Russian invasion of Ukraine was impossible...
The stormy winds of great power competition have arrived in the exposed vein of the Middle East, the Holy Land, where 7/10/2023 will be remembered for years to come as Israel's "Pearl Harbor."
The semi-symmetrical war of the non-state Hamas against the Israeli barracks will not change the reality on the ground, because the gulf that separates the two warring parties is impassable, but it has the potential to catalyze a series of events that pass in between.
A week before Hamas completed "Pearl Harbor" against Israel, beginning to write a new chapter in the never-ending book of Arab-Israeli wars, Joe Biden's red-hot eminence, Jake Sullivan, declared to the Atlantic that "the Middle East it is calmer today than it has been in the last two decades.”
The diagnosis of Biden's national security adviser turned out to be wrong, as the complacency of the Israeli secret services was unfounded, as were the predictions of those who believed that a Russian invasion of Ukraine was impossible. Not because Sullivan and colleagues are not up to the task, but anachronism, from which arises the unwillingness to adapt and the failure to see reality, is the main problem of the Western ruling classes.
The post-Cold War transition moment, marked by US efforts to capitalize on the Unipolar Momentum in pursuit of the project for a new American century, ended sometime between the 2008 Georgia War and Euromaidan. But from Washington to Tel Aviv, through Sleeping Beauty to Brussels, Western decision makers operate on a timeline that seems stuck between 1999 and 2003.
The problem for Western decision-makers (and those who whisper to them) is anachronism. Believing that it is (still) possible to speak of the American Moment in the age of resurgent empires and emerging powers, pursuing a multipolar world. Believing that it is (still) possible to talk about the global economic hegemony of the G7 in the era of ASEAN or BRICS. Believing that the unfinished business of the Cold War, and Palestine being one of them, would not jeopardize the era of great power competition.
The age of (poly)crisis arcs
Amerika duhet të përgatitet për "një botë jashtë kontrollit", shkruante një nga gjigantët e shekullit të njëzetë, strategu Zbigniew Brzezinski, në prag të vitit 2000. Historia i ka dhënë të drejtë njeriut që i dha goditjen përfundimtare Bashkimit Sovjetik, duke dramatizuar revolucionin polak dhe luftën guerile afgane të viteve 1980 dhe që në periudhën pas 11 shtatorit, paralajmëroi presidencën Bush për efekte të gjata të nisjes së luftës kundër terrorit.
Këshillat dhe leximet e të mençurit Brzezinski nuk kanë gjetur një vesh të gatshëm për të dëgjuar. Tani jemi drejt tranzicionit multipolar. Një fenomen i keqkuptuar, ndonjëherë i përqeshur, që ka rindezur konfliktet e ngrira dhe ka rizgjuar nacionalizmat e fjetur, duke gjeneruar tërmete gjeopolitike nga Evropa në Afrikë dhe duke shkaktuar harqe krizash brenda dhe ndërkontinentale.
Unpredictability is the hallmark of this part of the century, because the advent of multipolarity has killed the world of global cops. And those who insist on living in the past, like France in the coup belt, the United States between Ukraine and the Indo-Pacific, and Israel with Palestine, are doomed to suffer this unpredictability, rather than accompany it and, with any luck, run it. /Adapted "Pamphlet" from " Inside Over "
Lini një Përgjigje