FLASH
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Professor Robert Pape tells Sky News that tactical successes with bombing create the illusion of control and could deepen the conflict.
The United States is in the "claws of an escalation trap," also known as the "smart bomb trap," in its joint campaign against Iran, Professor Robert Pape, a political scientist at the University of Chicago, said in an interview with Sky News.
Pape said that the concept of the "escalation trap" is related to what he defines as "the illusion of 100% tactical success."
"The success of bombs in destroying targets is real, but it creates the illusion of control through escalation. This is the trap of smart bombs ," he declared.
Pape, who has studied conflicts since World War I and the issue of regime change in Iran for two decades, said he was concerned about the direction the situation was taking. He said that even if the bombings achieve military objectives, they could strengthen nationalist sentiments within the Iranian regime and society.
He added that recent developments show that Iran's strategy has gone beyond the Pentagon's expectations. "Nobody in the Pentagon expected the broader war strategy from Iran, and that's what happened," Pape said.
According to his analysis, the conflict has entered a new phase. "Now we see the beginnings of a long war. President Trump is trying to regain control of the situation. He did not even rule out the use of ground forces, this would be the third phase of the smart bomb trap," he said.
Pape stressed that it is impossible to say for sure whether the conflict will reach that stage, but assessed that the US is currently "in the middle of a protracted war."
The professor's statements represent an academic analysis of the dynamics of military escalation and do not constitute an official position of the US authorities.
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