FLASH
Shkruar nga Daniel Serwer
War, unlike mathematics, has uncertain outcomes, caused in unexpected ways. Ukrainians have rolled the dice. We have to wait and see what the outcome is.
Ukrainian forces have penetrated more than 15 kilometers into Russia's Kursk region north of Kharkiv. This is the most serious penetration of Ukraine into Russian territory during the current war. Milbloggers claim that the Russians are trying to counter the incursion with new recruits. They would likely also need to weaken defenses somewhere along the roughly 600 mile front to respond to Kursksion.
The balance is changing
The past year of fighting has seen little change overall. The Russians have gained little, especially in the east. They have recently left Kharkiv (though not all the way to the border), where they had made some progress in the spring. The failure of the US to continue supplying arms and ammunition last winter damaged Ukraine's morale and defense capabilities. Likewise, European reluctance to provide economic aid.
Now that economic aid and military supplies are flowing again, Ukraine's morale and capability are improving. The F16s are arriving. Better air defenses and longer-range artillery and missiles will increase Ukraine's capabilities. The Kursk incursion will no doubt boost morale further, if successful.
Russia's stockpiled weapons supplies are running out, but North Korea and Iran are providing missiles and drones. The Russian military has manpower issues, but perhaps less serious than Ukraine's. However, Vladimir Vladimirovich is not sounding confident, or offering to help the Governor of Kursk:
However, the target is unclear
Ukraine's military objective is still unclear. Kiev has not said anything. An important rail line for supplying Russian troops further south? The Kursk nuclear power plant? Capture of soldiers or territory that could be traded for Ukrainian territory or soldiers? The encirclement of Russian units in the south that had fought their way near Kharkiv?
Force the Russians to weaken offensive and defensive operations further south? Encouraging international backers to speed up arms shipments? Encouraging Putin's opponents in Moscow and across the Russian Federation to confront him? It still seems to be anyone's guess.
Ukraine has committed elements of four experienced brigades to the effort, suggesting this is not just a cross-border raid. However, it remains to be seen whether the Ukrainians will seek to keep the territory they take. This would be a daunting task, assuming the population is still loyal to Moscow. The population in today's Kursk region overwhelmingly identifies as Russian, not Ukrainian.
War is not mathematics
War, unlike mathematics, has uncertain outcomes, caused in unexpected ways. Ukrainians have rolled the dice. We have to wait and see what the result is./ Adapted "Pamphlet" from "PeacFare"
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