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Polls warn of possible loss for the prime minister, but uneven playing field and electoral system favor Fidesz
Anyone who wants to stand near the stage takes a flag in their hand. An organizer explains how to wave it later, so that it looks good in photos and videos. About 1,000 people have gathered in the town hall square in Ócsa for Viktor Orban's meeting. However, the square is not full and the atmosphere remains subdued. Some sing the songs that come from the loudspeakers, but the calls that a group of young functionaries try to start are joined only by the most loyal supporters in the front rows.
This is surprising, as the presence of the long-serving prime minister in a small municipality south of Budapest with fewer than 10,000 inhabitants is an event. In recent years, opportunities to see him in person have been rare. Orban has usually appeared only in controlled settings and before select audiences. He cultivates the image of a “father of the nation,” but he is not a classic popular tribune.
A confrontation on the ground
Since mid-March, the prime minister has been on a nationwide tour, as he has to worry seriously about his re-election for the first time in a long time. According to polls by independent institutes, he has been significantly behind the opposition leader, Peter Magyar, of the Tisza party, for months. The government camp calls these figures politically motivated and contradicts them with polls by institutes close to it, which show a lead for Fidesz.
However, it is clear that Orban is not unaffected by the fact that his opponent has been on the ground almost non-stop over the past two years and has managed to gather significant crowds even in traditional Fidesz areas.
After almost every rally, the prime minister posts on Facebook comparison photos with Tisza's events at the same locations, showing smaller crowds. "We are the majority," he writes. But users often point out that the photos were taken at different times or from different angles, even from previous events.
A couple in their fifties say they came to the square to show support and encourage the prime minister. They emphasize the importance of preserving the achievements of the last 16 years, especially family policies.
For some supporters, the main theme remains security. One woman says she wants to avoid any risk of her children being drawn into the war, believing Orban guarantees peace. Banners opposing Hungary's involvement in the conflict in Ukraine are also seen in the crowd.
Campaign rhetoric and themes
The risk of involvement in the war in Ukraine has been a key theme of Orban's campaign. He presents Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as an opponent and portrays Magyar as allied with him. In a 24-minute speech in March, Ukraine was mentioned 16 times.
However, at the rally in Ócsa, he focused more on migration, the economy and social policies. He stressed that his government has provided jobs and distributed financial resources from multinational companies to families and pensioners.
His speech lasted about 20 minutes, after which he quickly left the stage. According to the critical portal "HVG", enthusiasm for his tour is waning.
Structural advantages of power
Although Orban is known as a strong politician in the campaigns, recent polls show that the opposition's lead has increased. This has increased tension in the government camp. On one occasion in Győr, the prime minister reacted angrily to protesters who opposed him.
However, the question remains whether the opposition can overthrow him in a system that he himself has transformed into an “illiberal democracy.” The European Parliament has called Hungary an “electoral autocracy.”
According to the OSCE, the elections are free but not fair, due to the government's dominance of the campaign and electoral rules that favor it.
Electoral reforms in 2010 strengthened the majoritarian system and changed the division of electoral zones. Of the 199 parliamentary seats, 106 are directly elected by simple majority, favoring the largest party.
In addition, the division of electoral districts gives more weight to conservative rural regions than to cities, where the opposition is stronger. Observers have criticized these practices as unequal.
According to some analyses, even in the event of a tie, Fidesz could win more seats than the opposition.
Post-election scenarios
In the event of a strong victory, the opposition could take advantage of the same system and secure a sizable majority. But without a qualified majority, it could face difficulties in implementing reforms, as many decisions require a two-thirds vote in parliament.
Orban has built mechanisms that make it difficult to change the system even in the event of a defeat. This makes the election result crucial for the political direction of the country.
In his speeches, the prime minister emphasizes that Hungary needs stability and experience, not political experiments. He argues that the current moment requires continuity in facing the challenges from Brussels and Kiev. /Adapted from NZZ /
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