FLASH
Shkruar nga Roberto Fabbri
Q&A after Mar-a-Lago, here's why trust is a risk...
A day after the Mar-a-Lago meeting, it is fair to wonder what the actual consequences will be of a meeting that was presented as a potential turning point towards ending the conflict in Ukraine.
But is that really the case? Let's try to answer some questions that many people have.
1. Have any concrete steps been taken towards peace at Mar-a-Lago?
More no than yes. In the sense that the end of the conflict ultimately depends on Vladimir Putin, who was not at Mar-a-Lago. Even yesterday, after the summit, the Kremlin clearly reiterated that the end of the war can only come when Russia has achieved all its objectives, that is, has imposed all its dictates. Therefore, no compromise: either Trump manages to force Zelensky to submit to them, or the war will continue. The latter is much more likely.
2. Why does Putin feel (or pretend to feel) so strong at this stage?
Because he knows very well that Trump is not an impartial arbiter of this dispute. The American president clearly (though not entirely) leans towards Russia for a number of reasons, some well-known, others less so. The main one is his decision to effectively abandon the historic alliance with Europe to pursue a neo-imperial policy that envisages dividing the world into spheres of influence with two other empires: China and Russia. From this new perspective, so shocking to us that we still find it hard to believe, the European Union is simply a weak competitor to be dismantled for better dominance in collaboration with the extremist forces of the European right, while Russia can be a partner, including an economic one, with which the Old Continent will be effectively torn apart. Putin is well aware of all this, and above all, he knows that the time available to seize this once-in-a-lifetime historic opportunity is limited: not only because he is now 73 years old, but because America is not guaranteed to remain Trumpian forever. So act now without missing a beat. Other reasons why Trump tends to favor Moscow include the many dubious favors that have been granted to him since the 1990s by oligarchs close to Putin: it is not excluded that the "tsar" keeps secrets in his vault that are much more embarrassing for Trump than the Epstein Files.
3. Does Putin really want peace?
It depends on what you mean by peace. For him, this means a “yes” to all his current demands and the implementation of conditions to then achieve the remaining ones. When Putin says he is not interested in a ceasefire, but only in peace, this is not as encouraging as it might seem: on the contrary, it means that he does not want to give Ukraine time to breathe, but rather to impose his conditions definitively. So: today, fully annex the four Ukrainian provinces that it only partially occupies, including the fortified Ukrainian line in the Donbas that prevents the Russians from advancing westward; limit the strength of the Ukrainian army by diktat; and force Zelensky to hold elections in order to get rid of him. Tomorrow, expect Europe to crumble, starting with the hoped-for victory of the French “patriots” in 1927, to push him, in agreement with Trump, to abandon Kiev. Then the second phase of the war could begin, with the ultimate goal of transforming Ukraine into a second Belarus.
4. Yes, Zelensky, do you really want peace?
In Kiev, they know very well that Trump has a friendly relationship with Moscow and that Putin only wants Ukraine to surrender. However, Zelensky has learned the lesson of February 28, when he was harassed by Trump and Vance in the White House: he knows that he has to navigate a hellish environment, given Trump’s huge ego and his ambition to sign some peace treaty so that he can brag about it and claim for himself the Nobel Peace Prize, which he still resents being awarded to Barack Obama and not him. Therefore, he should thank Trump at every turn (and partly rightly so, given that without American intelligence, Ukraine would be destroyed), reiterate that he, too, truly believes that peace is very close, and meet with American envoys like Steve Witkoff, whose incompetence and pro-Russian bias are matched only by the determination with which his fellow missionary, Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, pursues business objectives with largely private implications in Putin’s Russia. Through all of this, Zelensky is trying to provide Ukraine with just enough to survive while waiting for Putin to prove that he is not eternal. So far, he has done an extraordinary job.
5. Will we finally see peace in 2026?
Maybe not. Neither Putin nor Zelensky really wants it. Putin would like Ukraine to surrender through diplomatic channels, but he won't have it.
And Zelensky knows very well that Putin's signature on any treaty is worth less than the famous "paper rags" torn by the Germans in World War I. They will continue to talk about the imminent peace, while continuing a terrible war. The only open question concerns Trump: what he will do when he gets tired of all this, no one knows. Maybe not even he himself. /Adapted from Il Giornale /
Lini një Përgjigje