FLASH
Shkruar nga Harun Karcic & Peter Mandaville
With the stabilization of the government in Bosnia, and the settlement of the Serbia-Kosovo dispute, Europe and the United States can achieve a double success: first, by ensuring the much-needed democracy and stability for these countries, and second, by reducing Moscow's capacity to exploit the unresolved Balkan conflicts for its strategic benefits.
The impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the Balkans can only be understood by considering Moscow's malign influence in the region from a broader perspective. While Russia has specific objectives related to each country in the region, its overall objective is to influence the Western Balkans through the well-known "divide and rule" approach, using multiple means of influence.
While the United States and its European partners are focused on the war in Ukraine, Russia is taking the opportunity to breach NATO's borders and sow discord among countries that hope to one day join the European Union.
Moscow penetrates the population of the region mainly through political representatives, local media and the Orthodox Church. That they all work to exploit divisive issues and deepen existing divisions in various societies.
The alleged threats from NATO expansion, EU reforms and "Muslim extremists" in Bosnia and Kosovo are often inflated and manipulated by Moscow to escalate tensions and create a sense of insecurity within the population.
Bosnia and Herzegovina is perhaps the clearest example of a country where Russian tentacles can be found in depth. Moscow has many foci it can exploit in a country that has long been caught between the path towards the European Union and NATO on the one hand, and hard-line Serbian nationalist political elements in the Republika Srpska (one of the two the autonomous entities that make up Bosnia; the other is the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina).
The latter are keeping the country under the influence of Belgrade and Moscow. Moscow enjoys a number of local assets, including Serbian nationalist politicians such as Milorad Dodik, the president of Republika Srpska. There are also motorcycle gangs such as the local branch of the Night Wolves, paramilitary militias such as Honor of Serbia, businessmen with dubious connections, pro-Russian media and above all the transnational Serbian Orthodox Church.
The main narratives of Russia's soft power consist of two elements: the anti-Western opposition and the Orthodox brotherhood. The discourse of the Russian Orthodox Church against the "moral decadence of the West" (used by the Serbian Orthodox Church) allows Moscow to describe the process of European integration as another example of Western normative imperialism, which aims to impose liberal values that are foreign to local societies (which are assumed to have more in common with Eastern Orthodoxy than with the West).
A key element of this technique is to blame the current inter-ethnic tensions on the actions and ignorance of the West, but also to create the impression that Russia is only reacting to Western aggression. Therefore, Russia is exploiting not only the religious and ethnic weaknesses in the region, but also the declining faith in democracy and the lack of will for liberal democratic reforms that has plagued the Balkans after a decade of stagnation in the EU enlargement process.
Just as the Balkans have different cultures, ethnicities and political histories, their reactions to the invasion of Ukraine were also different. Some were outraged by the Russian invasion of a sovereign democratic country, especially Croats, Bosniaks and Kosovars, who are able to identify with the current situation of Ukrainians because of their similar experience as a result of Slobodan Milošević's irredentist aspirations in the 1990s.
They are anxiously anticipating the possible geopolitical consequences, and wondering what they might mean for their political future. Others have openly expressed support for President Vladimir Putin and his war against Ukraine, such as Dodik and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic.
Through investments in energy and trade, the Kremlin has managed to create a vital source of funds, and has proven adept at expanding its influence within a fairly short period of time. Because the kleptocratic circles in the Balkans see the connection with Moscow as very profitable, just as they also perceive Chinese investments.
Fortunately, however, some steps can still be taken that can blunt the trajectory of Russian influence in the Balkans, but only if they are implemented quickly and forcefully. First, Europe and the US must improve and support a strong and responsive security architecture in Bosnia, Kosovo and Montenegro, the most fragile and vulnerable countries in the region.
It is vital to encourage the strengthening of military institutions and state-level capacities in the pro-NATO and pro-EU Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. In it, Republika Srpska could further pull all of Bosnia into the orbit of Belgrade and ultimately Moscow.
Second, Russian disinformation campaigns in the local languages of the Western Balkans, which fuel political and ethnic divisions and promote mistrust and instability, must be stopped. For this, the lessons learned by the Baltic countries in this regard should be applied.
Finally, one of the main sources of political instability in Bosnia and Herzegovina is its constitution. A new Bosnian constitution must reflect the wishes of all citizens, with every vote counted equally and without the ethnic quotas and vetoes that have so long hindered effective governance.
With the stabilization of the government in Bosnia, and the settlement of the Serbia-Kosovo dispute, Europe and the United States can achieve a double success: first, by ensuring the much-needed democracy and stability for these countries, and second, by reducing Moscow's capacity to exploit the unresolved Balkan conflicts for its strategic benefits.
*Dr. Harun Karcic, journalist and political analyst living in Sarajevo who covers Balkan issues.
Lini një Përgjigje