FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
Ukraine's betrayal is a final warning to the UK and its continental allies to invest more energy and money into rebuilding their defences...
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer in the middle of last month traveled to Kiev to support Ukraine's fight for freedom, a pledge he initially made, a defining feature of his leadership when Labour was in opposition.
Hands were warmly shaken with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, air raid sirens greeted a Russian drone strike, financial pledges were made, and a 100-year partnership treaty was signed. The prime minister expressed support for resisting Russian tyranny “for as long as it takes” for Ukraine to become “free and prosperous once again.”
US President Donald Trump said he had begun peace negotiations with Vladimir Putin over the heads of Ukraine and European NATO members.
US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth then delivered another blow to European security, publicly declaring that Ukraine would have to accept the surrender of large parts of its territory and forget about becoming a member of NATO. He further declared that Ukraine's future defense would be in Europe, because the US would not send any of its troops to maintain a security guarantee.
Humiliated and distraught, European leaders are crying "betrayal." The UK government is not raising its voice against this accusation in public, but privately it agrees. It is surprising that the US president meekly accepted some Russian demands before negotiations had even begun.
“What happened to the Art of the Deal?” asks one minister. There is disgust at the Kremlin’s glee at what it interprets as a justification for the barbarity it has inflicted on its neighbor. There is fear of the consequences for the Baltic states and others of rewarding the Russian predator. There is horror at Trump’s later suggestion that Putin be invited to rejoin the G7, as if the bloody record of war crimes committed by the Russians could simply be erased.
One ugly idea that has been making the rounds online is that Trump will pay a state visit to Moscow, timed to coincide with the May Day parade, which is celebrated by the Russian military. What a grotesque spectacle: the supposed leader of the free world sitting with the Kremlin tyrant watching a march through Red Square by the military that has committed so many atrocities in Ukraine.
The biggest surprise is that people pretend to be surprised. We knew that this US president despises America’s historic allies among the European democracies, as he despises the international security architecture that his predecessors built. His geopolitics is one in which big, carnivorous powers make deals with each other and smaller ones fall by the wayside or are trampled underfoot. The dangers are acute.
A dictated peace will embolden Putin and other predators by sanctifying the redrawing of international borders by force. If the US were to collude with Russia to carve up Ukraine to the protests of Kiev and European capitals, the transatlantic alliance would be destroyed.
Europeans have a right to be angry with Trump, but they should also be angry with themselves. They are guilty of leaving their continent so vulnerable to this perilous turn in world events.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine was often described as a wake-up call, but much of Europe responded by hitting the “snooze” button. Three years later, the latest authoritative report from the International Institute for Strategic Studies finds that Moscow is pouring more resources into its war machine than all of non-Russian Europe spends on defense. Several NATO frontline countries, notably Poland, have increased their military budgets in response to the destruction of Ukraine. The Poles understand that the cost of deterrence is worth paying to avoid the much greater price of exposing themselves to destruction. Others are still asleep. Last year, eight of NATO’s 32 members were still falling short of the modest commitment to spend at least 2% of GDP.
It is not that Europe lacks the resources to defend itself without U.S. help. Russia's population is about 144 million. The total population of NATO countries, excluding the U.S., is over 636 million, and their combined economic weight is about 12 times that of Russia. The means are there, what has been lacking is the will.
Defence spending will become a hot topic in British politics. George Robertson, defence secretary during Tony Blair's time at Number 10 and later secretary general of NATO, has led a strategic defence review.
One of Healey’s new ministers has said that the British military could disappear within six months if it were to be involved in a war on the scale of the conflict in Ukraine. In the area of cyber warfare, the head of the National Cyber Security Centre recently warned that Britain’s shields are not strong enough to protect us from the multitude of bad actors that are threatening us.
There is an old diplomatic adage: “If you’re not at the table, you’re probably on the menu.” In this era of international relations, exemplified by Trump seeking to make a strongman deal with Putin to break up Ukraine, the law of the jungle is beginning to prevail. If Britain and the rest of Europe do not want their vital interests to be on the menu, we will have to raise the cost of a seat at the table. /Adapted from “Pamphlet”, from “The Guardian”
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