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At first glance, his decision to skip the ceremony may seem surprising, but there are several reasons why his choice makes political sense.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban will not attend Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20. Orban has chosen to deliver a speech at a conference evaluating the Hungarian presidency of the EU on the same day, the prime minister's press chief Bertalan Havasi told Telex.hu.
For weeks, government communications had heralded the event as a significant diplomatic opportunity, making Orban's sudden change particularly significant and surprising.
Orban was the first EU leader to openly support Trump in 2016, and the ruling Fidesz party celebrated his return to the White House with great joy.
The prime minister himself called it a “brilliant victory” and “perhaps the greatest comeback and fight in Western political history.” Over the past eight years, Fidesz has forged informal and formal ties with the American right. Experts from the state-funded Danube Institute have even contributed to Project 2025, a transition plan developed by the Heritage Foundation that serves as a guide for the second Trump administration.
According to the political think tank Political Capital, Orban believes that a Trump presidency could potentially empower populist movements across Europe, expanding his diplomatic space to maneuver while reducing international scrutiny of Hungary's democratic erosion.
Hungary also expects clear economic benefits from the change in Washington. Orban and members of his government have high hopes that bilateral ties will strengthen, with billions of dollars in new investment potentially flowing into Hungary.
The government also expects the renewal of double taxation avoidance agreements with Washington, which expired under the previous administration, something the prime minister mentioned in an interview.
Later in the day, Secretary of State for International Communications Zoltan Kovacs clarified that neither Orban nor other representatives of the Hungarian government had been invited to Trump's inauguration. Kovacs explained that the event is not a formal gathering for foreign dignitaries and those attending, such as Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Dutch politician Geert Wilders, are doing so by personal invitation.
According to The Hill, President-elect Trump invited Orbán to the ceremony, as confirmed by other US media outlets. At first glance, his decision to skip the ceremony may seem surprising, but there are several reasons why his choice makes political sense, according to Szabolcs Dull, former editor-in-chief of Index.hu and Telex.hu.
Flying to Washington immediately after returning from a two-week vacation in India, which was not officially announced but leaked to the press, would not look good politically, he writes on his blog. Orban would be another face in the crowd, he claims, adding that the prime minister and his staff are working behind the scenes to bring Trump to Budapest, perhaps in time for next year's election campaign.
Other analysts suggest the move could be linked to recent U.S. sanctions targeting Viktor Orban's key ally, chief of staff Antal Rogan, who also oversees communications and intelligence services. The sanctions could legally extend to individuals with business ties to Rogan, they added.
Miklos Radvanyi, senior vice president of the Freedom Frontiers Institute, supported this in an interview with Hungarian media.
The institute, closely affiliated with the Republican Party, had previously filed a detailed report in 2018 under the Magnitsky Act.
"We have named ten people in the document, including Prime Minister Viktor Orban, his wife, daughter, son-in-law and father," he said.
Orban's childhood friend, Hungary's most powerful oligarch, Lorinc Meszaros, was also on the list. The report also included MNB governor György Matolcsy and Janos Lazar, who was Orban's former chief of staff.
In the interview, Radvanyi described Hungary as a "gangsterocracy," where the rule of law is absent and the country is governed by a one-party system disconnected from international norms. He noted a bipartisan view in the U.S. on Hungary's return to democracy, which threatens NATO's security interests.
Despite their cordial ties, it is an illusion to think that Rogan can be removed from the list soon. The decision to lift the ban will be taken strictly according to the established procedural rules, he added.
Radvanyi warned that without serious efforts against corruption, Hungary risks further sanctions and loss of credibility with the US, especially as its economic influence globally remains limited.
Radvanyi fled Hungary during the Cold War and later became a national security and foreign affairs expert. He worked as a foreign affairs adviser to Senator Orrin Hatch and served as a campaign staffer for US President Donald Trump in the 2016 campaign. / Adapted Pamphlet /
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