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Any deal between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin when they meet on Friday could leave Ukraine in a difficult position after three years of brutal and painful struggle for survival. There has been speculation that the two leaders could agree to a so-called “land for peace” deal, which could give Ukraine instructions to give up territory in exchange for an end to the fighting.
This would effectively be a forcible annexation of sovereign Ukrainian territory by Russia. It is unclear how much direct involvement President Volodymyr Zelensky or any Ukrainian representative will be allowed at the summit.
Russia currently occupies about 19% of Ukraine, including Crimea and parts of the Donbas region that it occupied before the full-scale invasion in February 2022.
President Trump has said he hopes to take back "core territory" for Ukraine, although it is uncertain what President Putin would agree to.
A ceasefire along the front line?
The range of outcomes from the Trump-Putin meeting is wide, with everything from a lack of progress to a possible ceasefire. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, for example, said this week that there are "a lot of fears and a lot of hopes" about what might come out of it.
Military analyst Michael Clarke told Sky News that the summit will certainly not create peace, but it could create a ceasefire if Putin decides to be flexible.
" So far he has shown no flexibility. A ceasefire along the front line, with minimal withdrawal by both sides, would be a surprising result ," he says.
However, he doubts that will happen. Clarke said a favorable outcome could be for both sides to agree to a ceasefire that would begin in two weeks (for example) with threats of sanctions from the US if Russia or Ukraine violate it.
Will Ukraine be forced to give up territory to Russia?
While President Trump's stance on the Ukrainian resistance seems perhaps more favorable from his recent comments, it is still possible that Kiev could be asked to give up territory as part of any deal with Russia.
Moscow is focused on four oblasts (regions) of Ukraine: Luhansk and Donetsk (Donbas), Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.
President Putin's forces control almost all of Luhansk, but about 30% of the remaining parts remain in Ukrainian hands and are fiercely contested.
This would include surrendering some of the “fortress belt,” a network of four settlements, including Kramatorsk and Sloviansk — that has held back Russian forces for 11 years.
Michael Clarke said this might satisfy President Putin "for the time being," but many believe he would return for the rest of Ukraine, perhaps after President Trump leaves office.
It is unclear whether President Volodymyr Zelensky could accept such a painful concession, or indeed, survive politically, or whether the general Ukrainian public would support him in exchange for a pause in the fighting.
Should Russia return any territory to Ukraine?
The White House appears to have given guidance that this could happen, although the situation is very unclear.
"The Ukrainians may want to level the playing field in the north, removing Russian interference in Sumy and near Kharkiv, but of greater importance would be the return of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant to Ukrainian control, given how much it would contribute to Ukraine's energy needs," Savill added.
It is also possible that Russia is willing to withdraw from the areas of the Kherson region it controls.
According to Clarke, it is "possible" that they could take back the power plant, but Russia is likely to insist on maintaining access to Crimea by land.
This meant that the cities of Mariupol and Melitopol would remain in Russian hands, with all that this implies for the people living there.
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