FLASH
Shkruar nga Robert Clark
The war between Israel and Hamas is set to intensify, with a ground invasion of Gaza believed to be imminent. Israeli forces are massing along the border, and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has told the waiting troops that they will soon see Gaza "from the inside." The command will come."
This command could be the first strike in a much wider conflict. In the Mediterranean, a US air strike group is on standby, hoping to deter other regional actors from trying to intervene in the war between Israel and Hamas. A second group is headed to the Persian Gulf, along with missile defense systems. Artillery shells that were previously aimed at Ukraine are now reserved for Israel.
Meanwhile, on Israel's northern border, firefights with the Iranian-funded Hezbollah terrorist group are escalating. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned that direct conflict would bring "unimaginable destruction" to Lebanon and Hezbollah.
The world is preparing for war. The conflict is already raging in Europe, with Russian and Ukrainian forces locked in offensive and counterattack. After the Hamas terrorist attack on Israel, the Middle East can now be ignited.
Whether it happens or not depends in part on Iran, the financier and political tutor of Hamas and Hezbollah, which is now moments away from potentially plunging the world into a third world war.
The Iranian Foreign Minister has warned Israel that if the war does not stop "immediately", then "anything is possible, at any moment, and the region will spiral out of control". US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has warned of a very real risk of "significant escalation" of attacks on US forces and civilians.
He has good reason to worry. Tehran is not limiting its hostility to words; its regional proxies appear determined to further embarrass the US, attacking US forces with drones and missiles at Ain Al-Asad Air Base in Iraq, and al-Tanf in Syria.
Iran is not backing down. Already, a US warship has shot down three cruise missiles launched by Iran-backed Houthi terrorists in Yemen. Heading north, these missiles were potentially aimed at Israel. If successful, such an attack would have far-reaching consequences for Iran, with Israeli retaliation almost certain, potentially triggering an outright war – and US involvement.
The situation is extremely tense. Even as its commitment to the Ukraine war begins to waver, the West again finds itself challenged by authoritarian regimes. The resources available to Israel are not unlimited. In addition to continuing to supply arms to Ukraine, America must also worry about its arm in the Pacific.
Washington is busy rapidly reorganizing its military to deal with the threat posed by an increasingly belligerent Chinese Communist regime that aims to reunify with Taiwan, even by force if necessary. With war and great power competition erupting in Europe, and the US increasingly involved in the Middle East, the Communist regime in Beijing may see this as a once-in-a-generation opportunity.
With America's attention distracted, Iran may decide to further provoke the US in its efforts to assert regional dominance by trying to push the Americans to disengage and leave Israel alone.
It is not difficult to see how an ill-judged act of hostility could trigger a military response and the situation in the Middle East begin to spiral out of control of any leader, drawing in Washington and giving China the window desired, to attempt a killer strike on Taiwan—a strike which would almost inevitably draw an American response.
Within months, the US could be directly involved in two devastating wars, on two continents, and financing a third in Ukraine.
This nightmare is not inevitable. The road to escalation is paved with good intentions and mitigation. If America and the West show resolve that they will fight in response to provocation, they can still confront their potential tormentors.
Until now, Washington and its allies have been unwavering in their support for Israel and Kiev. They should not waver in the coming weeks. Dictators and strongmen respect only force, and it is force and determination that will force Tehran to back down. As the old saying goes, if you will have peace, prepare for war. / Bota.al
Robert Clark is director of defense and security at Civitas. Previously, he served in the British Army
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