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Shkruar nga PamfletiAccording to POLITICO's analysis, these results present NATO leaders with a dual challenge: growing international uncertainty and domestic budgetary constraints. The issue is expected to be at the center of discussions at the Munich Security Conference, where leaders from around the world will consider ways to strengthen collective security in an increasingly tense global climate.
A majority of citizens in major Western countries believe that the world is becoming more dangerous and that a new global conflict could erupt within the next five years.
This is the conclusion of a survey published by POLITICO , which highlights growing public concern about international security and the cost of a new era of conflict.
The survey included over 2,000 voters in each of five countries - the US, Canada, the UK, France and Germany - and was conducted from February 6 to 9. In all countries, the majority of respondents said the global situation has worsened.
In the US, Canada, France and the UK, majorities consider the outbreak of a Third World War within five years to be possible. Only in Germany do a majority think that such a conflict is unlikely in this period.
According to Seb Wride, head of polling at Public First, which conducted the survey, the change in attitudes within a year reflects a new perception of uncertainty. He points out that public opinion in the West sees war as more likely and alliances as less stable.
In the UK, 43 percent of respondents believe a new world war is “likely” or “very likely” by 2031, up from 30 percent in March 2025. In the US, 46 percent share the same opinion, compared with 38 percent a year ago.
Americans are the most likely to think their country will be involved in war within the next five years, followed by the British and French. At least one in three citizens in the US, Britain, France and Canada believe there is a possibility that a nuclear weapon will be used in a conflict during this period.
In terms of threat perception, most respondents in Europe consider Russia to be the main threat to peace on the continent. In France, Germany and Britain, the US is ranked as the second biggest threat, more often than China. In Canada, respondents see President Donald Trump's America as the main security risk.
However, the poll shows that concern about war does not automatically translate into support for higher military spending. In France, Germany, Britain and Canada, majorities say their country should increase its defense budget, with support strongest in Britain and Canada.
But support drops sharply when citizens are asked to consider how to finance it through increased public debt, cuts in other sectors or tax increases. In France, only 28 percent support increasing defense spending when these options are mentioned, down from 40 percent a year ago. In Germany, support has fallen from 37 percent to 24 percent.
In Germany, defense spending ranks among the least preferred budget priorities, ahead only of foreign aid.
The survey also shows skepticism towards the idea of creating a standing European Union army under a single central command. The proposal found support from 22 percent of respondents in Germany and 17 percent in France.
Meanwhile, compulsory military service enjoys the highest support in Germany and France, where about half of citizens support this measure.
According to POLITICO's analysis, these results present NATO leaders with a dual challenge: growing international uncertainty and domestic budgetary constraints. The issue is expected to be at the center of discussions at the Munich Security Conference, where leaders from around the world will consider ways to strengthen collective security in an increasingly tense global climate.
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