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The effects on consumers and the most vulnerable economies from the disruption of maritime trade in both the Red Sea and the Panama Canal are escalating.
The UN agency for trade and development, UNCTAD, expressed deep concern about escalating disruptions in global trade. Recent Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, combined with geopolitical tensions affecting shipping in the Black Sea and the effects of climate change on the Panama Canal, have created a complex crisis affecting major trade routes at sea .
UNCTAD's Head of Trade Supply Chain, Jan Hoffmann, detailed the situation. He first highlighted the critical role of maritime transport in international trade, noting that it is responsible for around 80% of the world's goods movement. He then noted that the Suez Canal is a critical waterway connecting the Mediterranean Sea with the Red Sea and that it would cover about 12% to 15% of world trade in 2023. UNCTAD estimates that the volume of trade passing through the Canal of Suez has fallen by 42% in the last two months. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has also caused significant changes in oil and grain trade, reshaping established trade patterns.
Meanwhile, the Panama Canal, another key artery for global trade, is facing a severe drought that has reduced water levels, resulting in an impressive 36% drop in total crossings last month compared to a year earlier. . The long-term effects of climate change on channel capacity raise concerns about sustainable effects on global supply chains. The Red Sea crisis, characterized by Houthi-led attacks disrupting shipping lanes, has added another layer of complexity, the UNCTAD spokesman said.
The number of container ships passing through the Red Sea is falling rapidly, while freight rates and emissions are skyrocketing. In particular, the weekly passage of container ships has decreased by 67%. The passage of tankers and natural gas carriers also shows a significant decrease.
Meanwhile, ship prices are rising. Rates from Shanghai to Europe have more than tripled +256%, while rates to the West Coast of the United States of America have increased by 162%, even though ships on this route do not pass through the Suez Canal. Insurance premiums have also increased, exacerbating the overall cost of transit.
First, problems in shipping containers increase the risk of late shipments and higher costs. The full impact on commodity prices will be seen later in the year.
Energy prices are rising as natural gas transit is disrupted, with a direct impact on energy supplies, especially in Europe. The crisis is also affecting global food prices, as longer distances and higher commodity prices can drive up costs. The organization underlined the urgent need for rapid adaptations by the shipping industry and strong international cooperation, as current challenges highlight the trade's vulnerability to geopolitical tensions and climate-related challenges, requiring collective efforts for sustainable solutions.
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