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Shkruar nga Pamfleti
Trump's threats against Iran mirror Nixon's strategy of imposing pressure through unpredictability, but risk having the same consequences for his credibility.
US President Donald Trump may be using the so-called "madman theory", a strategy popularized by former President Richard Nixon, in an attempt to pressure Iran - an approach that raises questions about its effectiveness and consequences.
Trump has made no secret of his admiration for Nixon, despite his controversial legacy. In recent developments, he threatened to “wipe out Iran as a civilization,” before backing down after Tehran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital corridor for global energy trade.
This approach reflects Nixon's model, known as the "madman theory," which aims to create the perception that the leader is unpredictable or unstable, in order to force opponents to make concessions that they would not normally accept.
Nixon formulated this idea in 1968, suggesting that North Vietnam should believe that he was willing to use any means, including nuclear weapons, to end the war. He also urged his aides to spread the idea that he was “capable of extreme brutality” in order to influence the decision-making of his opponents.
However, the effectiveness of this strategy remains debatable. While in relations with the Soviet Union it brought a period of de-escalation and arms control agreements, in Vietnam it led to intensive bombing without significantly changing the final outcome of the negotiations.
In the current case, Trump has used similar rhetoric against Iran, threatening total destruction before presenting a deal as a diplomatic success. In return, Tehran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil passes, and has reportedly imposed tariffs on ships.
Analysts say this result could be considered limited. "Trump is looking for a decisive move to declare success, as he has not achieved a clear victory in this conflict," said Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group.
According to him, extreme threats may have served to avoid deeper military involvement, such as a ground intervention, which would be complex, costly and long-term.
However, this approach may come at a significant cost. Using aggressive rhetoric to achieve diplomatic results risks damaging the credibility of the United States and reinforcing perceptions of instability in American leadership.
Trump has also had personal ties to Nixon's legacy. In the 1980s, he wrote to the former president expressing admiration, while figures close to him, such as Roger Stone, have been directly linked to the Nixon administration.
However, Nixon’s story also serves as a warning. Over-identification with a strategy based on ambiguity and pressure can have long-term consequences for political credibility. In this context, it remains unclear how often such an approach can be used without high costs to reputation and political stability. /Adapted from “Pamphlet” by “The Guardian”
Mary L. Trump është mbesa e D.Trump. Ajo është psikologe dhe autore e librit: Too Much and Never Enough (2020). Në këtë libër dhe në intervista, ajo thotë gjëra si: “Donald is profoundly damaged.” (“Donald është thellësisht i dëmtuar.”). “He has no empathy.” (“Ai nuk ka empati.”). “His behaviors are consistent with someone who meets the criteria for narcissistic personality disorder.” (ajo është më e kujdesshme këtu, pra e formulon si analizë profesionale, jo diagnozë formale). Në intervista për media si MSNBC dhe CNN, ajo ka thënë se: Ai është i rrezikshëm për demokracinë. Është rritur në një familje që shpërblente agresivitetin dhe shtypte emocionet. Ka mungesë të theksuar empatie dhe përgjegjësie. Ajo flet edhe për babanë e Donaldit: Fred Trump. Sipas saj, ai krijoi një ambient ku dobësia ndëshkohej, e ku dominimi dhe fitorja ishin gjithçka.