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On February 23, 2025, Germany will hold general parliamentary elections, from which the name of the new chancellor will also be known.
According to the latest polls, the CSU/CDU is the winner of the elections, while Friedrich Merz is seen as the most favored candidate for chancellor of Germany.
But in the German elections, like those held in the USA on November 5, 2024, betting companies are engaged, among them the American Polymarket.
Polymarket puts the probability of Friedrich Merz as the next chancellor at 92 percent. Polymarket believes that an election victory for the CDU/CSU is even more likely, quoting it at 93 percent.
According to the betting company, Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) and Economy Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) have almost no chance. Here, the probability of becoming chancellor after the 2025 federal election is only 2 or 1 percent. According to Polymarket, an electoral victory for the respective parties is almost impossible. Here the rates are 1 percent for the SPD and even less than one percent for the Greens.
Polymarket considers the AfD somewhat more successful. The betting company puts the chance of the party winning the election and Alice Weidel as the next chancellor of Germany at 6 percent. This is ultimately the second highest probability - albeit by a significant margin from the prediction for Merz.
However, the probability of the AfD winning second place in the 2025 federal election is 78 percent, compared to the SPD's 17 percent.
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