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The devaluation of the euro to a previously unknown point (1€=100.31 L), brought back the eyes on the exchange rate. From tourism to debt, the analysis carried out by the Altax center on all those that have the power to weaken the euro, confirms that it is not the formal economy that is producing this.
From the end of 2023 to the beginning of 2024, the euro has depreciated by 3.8% (when it was around 103 lek), taking the presence of a large amount of European values that is illegally introduced into the Albanian market.
Early start of the tourist season
In the first months of the year and on the eve of the tourist season, 1.54 foreigners visited Albania, 43.3% more than a year ago. In the cases of data from the Bank of Albania for the first 2024 to estimate generated by these tourists, on a comparative basis related to the largest number of visitors from 43.3% more, it is calculated that they reach an entry to estimate the main to in 900 million euros.
In the results before 2023, 43 million euros came from Albania and following all the reasons as above to find their amount in the first look 2024, a figure of 550 million euros comes out.
The difference in values from 2023 to 2024 is 350 million euros. This figure is the result that the devaluation of the euro was stronger this year than in 2023.
Trade balance
The trade balance for the first detection of early 2024 with a deficit of 113.7 billion ALL (1.09 billion euros), while a year ago the deficit was 85.7 billion ALL (790 million euros). The difference of 300 million euros shows that these euros have remained in the country where Albania has imported products.
The effect of exiting the country for import is influential in influencing the exchange rate of its currencies.
REMITANCES
In the first three months of 2023, remittances reached the value of 214 million euros. Altax predicts to be a figure even for 2024, in the light of the figures from BSH.
The effect of currency inflows from senders outside of Albania has an impact on the devaluation of the exchange rate of foreign currencies.
Foreign investments
Due to SHELL's investments and the stability of the real estate market in 2024, Altax predicts that harmful foreign investments in all their levels carried out in 2023, 308 million euros. The effect of foreign currency inflows from foreign investments has an impact on the devaluation of the foreign currency exchange rate.
Public debt
At the end of the third quarter of 2024, Albania's public debt was 5.65 billion ALL lower than in the period of 2023. Not receiving a new debt from foreign markets is positive for the weakening of the lek and the exchange rate of foreign currencies.
government
General public expenditures (mainly current) from 2023 to 2024 have increased by 49 million euros. The higher they are highlighted, the stronger the currencies and the weaker the lek.
Interest rates
The interest rate of crediting the economy for the first finding 2024 remained at the levels of 2023, with 3.25%. Compared to Tr.1 in 2023, there seems to be little change in the direction of interest rates of the economy, since it is considered that the lending of the interest rate of 2023 has shrunk the lending of the economy and economies. The effect of crediting the financial system has an impact on the exchange rate of foreign currencies, as the supply of Lek is strengthened.
Thus, the net effect from tourism is influential in the devaluation of the Euro and other currencies, but amortized to the extent of the large effect of the negative trade balance. The effect from public exposures has an impact on the weakening of the lek, amortizing those impacts from the tourism factor. The effect from remittances and foreign investments are not influential in the devaluation of the euro, since their effect is amortized by not receiving a new debt, so it has not entered the euro.
The volatility of a person's prices from informal money to the financial system of the reliability of the economy, where entrepreneurs invest the country's real estate girls, who have 1/4 of foreign investment, after taking the country's risk in sector investments. others. / "SI" newspaper
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