FLASH
Shkruar nga Daniel Serwer
The resignation of a prime minister with little power doesn't make much difference. Vučić is the man, not Vučevic.
I have been preoccupied with the events in DC and therefore slow to comment on Serbian politics. Of course, the resignation of the prime minister is a credit to the demonstrators. They have been keeping up the pressure for months following the collapse of the train station tent in Novi Sad.
Waves of protests
By my count, this is the third wave of recent popular protests against President Aleksandar Vučić. The first wave was the anti-violence protests that began in late 2023. The second was the environmental protests against lithium mining last summer and fall. Now we are seeing mass protests demanding accountability for the Novi Sad tragedy, which occurred last November 1. The common thread is that Serbs are demanding more transparency, accountability, and the rule of law.
The protests show deep dissatisfaction with Vučić. He has imposed a semi-authoritarian system. The state slanders and arrests dissidents, denies them opportunities for free expression, and buys support with jobs and government contracts. Meanwhile, he and his allies are taking rent from anyone and everyone who wants to do business in Serbia.
While united on the streets, the opposition is fragmented among small political parties and their selfish leaders. There is no opposition ready to govern. Some of the demonstrators are calling for a caretaker government to prepare for the elections. Vučić will not do that. He does not hesitate to cheat when necessary during election campaigns and at the polling stations. A caretaker government could affect his style.
Democratic resistance has worked well for Vučić
But he is also genuinely popular in much of the country. He is a committed Serbian nationalist who has attracted a lot of foreign investment from China, Europe and the US. Despite his democratic return, he has also gained political support from Washington and Brussels. They have seen him as better than any possible alternatives, which are mainly from the nationalist right. And they like Vučić’s supply of ammunition to Ukraine and his willingness to mine lithium. Of particular note has been the attention paid to Vučić by the US government and by Germany.
Beijing has invested mainly in steel, other metals, mining and the automotive industry. Apart from its potential future in the European Union, Serbia is attractive in part because of its weak regulation and enforcement. The collapse of Novi Sad is symptomatic. China also supplies homeland security technology that Vučić undoubtedly values.
Moscow is not a major investor anywhere these days, but it receives a lot of electronic components and political support from Serbia. Most notable is Serbia's refusal to align itself with EU sanctions on Ukraine.
One lapdog is as good as another
In this context, the resignation of a prime minister with little power doesn’t make much difference. Vučić is the man, not Vučevic. If he thinks he will win, or can ensure he will win, the President will call new elections. This has worked for him in the past to calm protests. Or he will choose another lapdog prime minister who will do what the President wants without opposition.
The prospects for true democracy in Serbia are dim, but that is certainly true elsewhere. But that is not a good reason not to try. My support is for the demonstrators./ Pecaefare
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