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Shkruar nga Eduard Zaloshnja
For comparison, in the 2013 elections (when the highest voter turnout was achieved here in the new millennium), there were about 3.27 million citizens of voting age on the voter list, of whom about 2 million resided in Albania (of whom, about 1.75 million voted)...
Over 3.71 million Albanian citizens have the right to vote in the May 11 elections (according to the final voter list published by the CEC).
But almost 1.6 million of them have not sent their vote by mail from abroad, thus not creating the opportunity for themselves to exercise their constitutional right to vote as Albanian citizens of voting age.
On the other hand, around 1.93 million voters reside in Albania (population 18 years and over according to INSTAT). And these have the concrete opportunity to vote – they just need to go to their respective polling stations and cast their vote for whoever they prefer. Around 200 thousand voters in emigration (11.2% of the total in emigration) have also used the concrete opportunity to vote, by sending their votes by mail.
For comparison, in the 2013 elections (when the highest voter turnout was achieved here in the new millennium), there were about 3.27 million citizens of voting age on the voter list, of whom about 2 million resided in Albania (of whom, about 1.75 million voted).
And how are the approximately 2.13 million voters with the concrete opportunity to vote distributed by districts?
Detailed data from INSTAT and the CEC by region allow us to calculate the numbers for each region, with Tirana, Fier, Elbasan and Durrës being the four regions with the largest number of voters with a concrete opportunity to vote (see Table 1 below).
How many of the voters with a concrete opportunity to vote are expected to vote?
In the last parliamentary elections, about 1.66 million local voters voted (the borders were closed due to Covid-19 for voters from abroad). Meanwhile, according to INSTAT, about 1.97 million voters lived here at the time. That is, about 84% of local voters voted.
Currently, the latest polls show that around 85% of those surveyed here will vote nationally.
If we apply this national percentage to local voters according to the distribution of participation across districts in 2021, it turns out that about 1.64 million local voters can go vote. While from abroad, about 200 thousand have sent their votes by mail. (Only after the close of voting tomorrow will we learn the exact number of envelopes that have arrived at the CEC).
It should be borne in mind that polls have a statistical margin of error. So, the real number of participants may fluctuate around the above figure. It should also be borne in mind that quite a few voters will be confused by the complicated ballot papers, such as newspaper sheets, and thus quite a few of their votes may turn out to be invalid (5% turned out to be invalid in the last parliamentary elections).\
In summary, the total valid votes could be somewhere around 1.77 million (see Table 2 below).
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