FLASH
Shkruar nga Daniel Serwer
Kosovo may look like Taiwan and Ukraine for him!
Friends in the Balkans ask what the candidacy of Kamala Harris means for them. There is precious little direct evidence to answer this question. But some things are obvious. Biden's withdrawal was no surprise. Neither was his endorsement of Harris. But her attitude towards the Balkans is anyone's guess. Here is my opinion as well.
The same approach will continue
Harris is a strong supporter of Ukraine's fight against Russian occupation. She will want to see Kiev win and Moscow lose. She will not easily accept the separation. This attitude is likely to be transferred to the Balkans. I wouldn't want to be the one to tell a female, black, Indian-origin president that people of different ethnicities can't live together.
Harris is also tough on China, both Biden and Trump. Kosovo may look like Taiwan and Ukraine to him. This means that it must be nurtured and protected from territorial claims by a former sovereign. She is unlikely to be sympathetic to the Association of Serb-Majority Municipalities or the autonomy of Republika Srpska. Someone should advise him early and often that both are bad ideas.
What should be done?
This fall's campaign and election in the US will be primarily about preserving liberal democracy, which is democracy based on equal individual rights protected by the rule of law. Those who want support from her administration must be consistent with this objective. Partitionists and ethnic separatists should beware.
The Biden administration has adopted a policy of appeasement towards Serbia. However, there is no reason why Harris should continue it. President Vucic has steered Belgrade eastward, aligning itself with China, Russia and other autocracies, including Azerbaijan and Hungary. Serbian supplies of munitions to Ukraine are worth something, but are likely to flow for economic reasons even if the political soft soap ends.
Mitigation has clearly failed. It's time for the expression "who beats you loves you". This is something that Harris' strong temperament will find acceptable.
Who will be responsible for the Balkans?
While writing this post, I learned that Alexander Kasanof will be the Deputy Assistant Secretary of State in the European Bureau responsible for both the Balkans and public diplomacy. This combination is a novelty.
President Harris is unlikely to spend much quality time in the Balkans. People reduce the number of red tape. Jim O'Brien will undoubtedly remain engaged. I don't know Kasanof, but his background in Ukraine could be a plus for those who wish to strengthen the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all current Balkan states. In addition, he is a graduate of Johns Hopkins/SAIS. Let's hope he knows that "who beats you loves you"./ Adapted "Pamphlet" from "Peacfare"
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