FLASH
Shkruar nga Pamfleti
Trump is now at “a dead end,” where the only thing he can do is “choose the least amount of damage.” In other words, “ declare victory and call it quits,” even though that means, in practice, facing a bolder, more aggressive Iran that controls the Strait of Hormuz. That’s the opinion of Ian Bremmer, a political scientist and international relations expert and founder and CEO of Eurasia Group. We spoke with him yesterday afternoon, as news of an Iranian rejection of negotiations was circulating.
Does Trump need negotiations more than the Iranians?
“For now, Tehran’s refusal should not be taken for granted. It should be borne in mind that there is a tendency to make strong positions on both sides. For example, even in the first round of negotiations, the Iranians initially said that a ceasefire in Lebanon was a precondition for sitting at the table, but then they went to Islamabad without achieving that. In short, they are now making a strong voice to send the message that they do not have a desperate need for negotiations, but this does not mean that they do not want to negotiate. However, it is clear that they do not take Trump’s threats seriously.”
Why does this happen?
"This is the fifth time Trump has threatened to destroy Iran if it doesn't accept a deal. So far, he has backed down each time and thus lost credibility."
Do the ayatollahs feel strong precisely for this reason?
“First, we must remember that we are talking about a theocracy, which operates not only on the instinct of survival, but also on irrational grounds, such as martyrdom and revenge. We are talking about a government that in January had no problem massacring thousands of its own citizens and that now has no problem watching them die under bombs. So we cannot reason only in terms of force and power. However, the Iranians have an advantage.”
Who is he?
"They have a clear picture of what's going on in America. Trump is in a country where there are media outlets like the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal, which often publish inside information about the government. Americans, on the other hand, don't have a clear idea of what the Iranian regime wants. We're not even sure who really runs Tehran."
What can the American president do now?
"The only thing he can do is declare victory and stop the war, immediately."
Where does his calculation error come from?
"Trump has two modes of action. The so-called 'Fafo' (an acronym for 'Fuck Around and Find Out', which can be translated as 'create chaos and see how it goes') and 'Taco' ('Trump Always Chickens Out', so Donald retreats when things go wrong). In the first case he tends to win, in the second he tends to lose."
If it stops now, it would be a loss. Especially if Tehran retains control over Hormuz...
"It would be the lesser of two evils. Every day this war continues makes things worse."
Many European, Arab, and Asian countries fear precisely this: that Trump will withdraw, leaving them to face the consequences, with a Strait in the hands of the Pasdaran.
“It is a legitimate concern, but even for them it would be the least harm. At first, the countries will have to negotiate the passage, even at high cost, with Tehran. While in the long term, the objective will be to find a way to bypass the Strait. It is not an ideal prospect, but the alternative is worse. The war must end.”/ Corriere della Serra
Cfaredo te beje e pret gjyqi e burgu e do te jete per turp presidenti i Amerikes qe perfundoi ne biruce per krime ndaj popullit te vet e njerezimit. Mjer edhe ata qe i lepijne bythen.
Kush mbjell bomba do haje si frut plumbat.