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An artificial intelligence simulation of the 48-team World Cup predicts that Argentina will beat Spain in the final 2-1, while the USA, Mexico and Canada will be eliminated before the quarterfinals.
Ahead of the official draw for the 2026 World Cup (December 5 in Washington), an Artificial Intelligence (AI) simulation has revealed interesting predictions for the new format with 12 groups and 48 teams, culminating in a final between Argentina and Spain at the MetLife Stadium in New York. The simulation evaluated the teams from the group stage to the grand final, including parameters of team strength, historical performance and playing style per team.
The locals and their "limit"
Despite their home-field advantage, the model predicts that Mexico, the United States and Canada will advance past the group stages but will be quickly eliminated in the knockout stages. According to the prediction, Mexico will be defeated 3-2 by Brazil in the round of 16, the United States will be eliminated 2-1 in extra time by Argentina, while Canada will be stopped by Argentina itself in the round of 16.
Argentina and Spain finalists
The simulation gives Argentina an advantage, given the presence of Lionel Messi in 2026 and his role as a leader in a team that is renewed in attack, until qualifying for the final. For Spain, the model predicts dominance in possession, qualification against England in the quarter-finals and Colombia in the semi-finals, but a disadvantage in "efficiency" against Argentina in the final.
Final scenario
The hypothetical path ends with Argentina beating Spain 2-1 for their second consecutive World Cup title, with the Albiceleste also eliminating Brazil in the semi-finals after a 2-2 draw and qualifying on penalties. Brazil reaches this point after previously eliminating France in a high-profile quarter-final, while Spain builds on their progress with a clean 3-1 win over Colombia in the semi-finals.
Remaining powers
Germany, England and Portugal are expected to be solid but not strong enough to reach the final, with the knockout teams acting as a filter in even matches. FIFA's new draw and format will divide the teams into four groups of capacity based on world rankings. The teams representing the host countries will be placed in pots A1 (Mexico), B1 (Canada) and D1 (USA), according to the competition schedule published last year. In total, 42 have qualified from the 48 teams competing in Canada, Mexico and the United States, but that will be filled by the day of the draw. The play-off tournament, a new competition that will draw six teams from the five confederations (with UEFA organizing separate play-offs for the bottom four European countries), while two places will be contested by intercontinental teams. These matches will be played in March.
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